Everyone talks about how the Houston game is a short week after Texas, but it is a short week for Houston too, and they get to travel to Provo while we sleep in our own beds. I think we win that one by 10 or more.
As to UCF, you can never ever ever overstate the importance of the loss of an elite QB from your program. I do not care how good you are everywhere else, if the QB play is just ok, you take a huge step back. And UCF will be a very good team next year, but I still think they struggle to replace Bortles. Also, that UCF D gave up a lot of yards and points last year. Their O just outscored you. I think that is a field goal game. Whoever wins turnover battle wins. It's a true toss up.