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Aug 20, 2014
11:34:38am
My take on the 2014-15 BYU Basketball Season.
Kaufusi is good. He has a lot of areas where he needs to develop, but he is already probably our 2nd best post defender (Austin), and he rebounds very well. He is a boxing out machine. He doesn't really have a go to move on offense, but he is athletic enough to be creative. He can get put back points as well as anyone, and that's what we need. Offensively, this BYU team will score it's points at the 1-3 positions.

Aytes is highly talented, but I think we've known that for a long time. He has some developing to do though, but he'll get a chance to do some of that on the court. I see him contributing on this team in significant ways, but we'll see how he progresses as the season goes on. He has a solid mid range jumper, that he can hit consistently as a turnaround as well. With his strength and athleticism, I'd like to see him play above the rim a bit more, but he has time to develop that more. Nice rebounding for his size. Nixon is the other Forward I am excited to see in real game situations.

The other guy that I think is going to surprise people is Anson Winder. Look for him to have a breakout season. He has always been reliable, but experience and seniority are taking him to a different level than he's been at before. Bartley, Halford, Toolson, and Fischer will provide nice depth at guard. I'm interested to see how Chatman does.

I believe we were going to be an NCAA team before we got deeper in the post. Probably a 9-11 seed type of team. With the depth we have seen come in the last few months, I think we will be back at the 2007-2010 levels, which could mean a 7-9 seed type of season. Haws will leave BYU as the all-time leading scorer.

The opportunity for a strong RPI won't be a problem. Our SOS will be Top 40-50 again. We should face at least 2 solid programs in Maui even if we lose to SDSU, as long as we beat Chaminade (they do pull an upset every once in awhile--IIRC 2012 was the last time they won a game in the Maui), we will get a consolation against a solid team. We face UMass, Stanford, and Utah at home in December, and I like our chances against all 3 of them. We are 5-2 all-time against Stanford including last years win, and I think we get them again this year. UMass shouldn't be quite as good as they were last year, although they do return some nice pieces. The Utah game is the wild card OOC game at home. As they proved to a lackadaisical BYU team last season in SLC, they are good enough to compete and win in this series again. However, Utah has struggled mightily on the road, even with their improved team. We have more experience in big games, and on paper, we are slightly more talented. Although they won the head to head last year, RPI and the NCAA selection committee says that BYU was the better team (and BYU played a tougher schedule. BYU's SOS was 41st, Utah's was 95th). I like BYU in this. I hope that the Seniors come out with a chip on their shoulders after losing to Utah for the first time in their careers last season. It should be a great game.

I predict that BYU will win in Logan this season for the first time in years. This has as much to do with the fact that BYU will be very good, as it does that Utah State will probably be very bad. Karma for the trashy behavior from the Aggie student section in 2012.

For BYU, a whole lot depends on the recovery of Collinsworth. If he is ready to play at 95-100%, and his outside and FT shooting has improved 5-8%, we will be very, very good. IMO, a 5-6 seed type of season could be in range.

The WCC was stronger than the MWC last season (#9 in Conference RPI for the WCC, #10 in conference RPI for the MWC), and it will be again this year. I predicted 3 years ago that the WCC would re-take it's position as a top 2 league in the West, and that is happening right now. WCC recruiting is up, and MWC recruiting is down. Several WCC programs, including SMC, Pepeprdine, and LMU, are at various stages of fundraising for new or expanded arenas. Portland just broke ground on a modest but important practice gym (it's part of a larger athletic building, but the basketball team will have a portion that's exclusively for them). The WCC ESPN deal is paying a nice dividend for the conference as a whole. IMO, the WCC will be around 7-8 in conference RPI this season.

The teams to watch in the WCC.

Gonzaga will be a beast this year. They were already supposed to be a Top 20 team according to most talking heads, and then they added USC's leading scorer Byron Wesley, and 5 star Domas Sabonis. They also have former Kentucky 6th man and McDonald's All-American Kyle Wiltjer eligible to play this season at the 4. Add that to Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell, Angel Nunez, and Prezemik Karnowski--along with the other ESPN 100 4 Star guard they added in this years class, and they have a stacked deck. Having said that, we can beat anyone in the MC. Anyone can win on a given night in basketball. BYU is good enough to compete for the conference championship--even against a loaded Gonzaga team. They will be the favorite, but I wouldn't count any Dave Rose Coached team out.

Don't sleep on SMC, USF, Portland, and San Diego.

SMC returned some nice players, and they added 2012 NIT MVP Aaron Bright from Stanford. They also got former UW 6th man Desmond Simmons. Simmons isn't a star, but he adds some talent in the post. They will probably be a bit better than they were last season, when they fell a few spots short of the NCAA bubble and beat Utah in the first round of the NIT. They were a bubble team most of last season, and in 2014-15 they will be a bubble NCAA team, and no worse than an NIT team.

USF brings back a core of players that lost to LSU in the 1st round of the NIT. They suffered a big loss when PG Avery Holmes transferred, but they countered that with a big win when they signed 3 Star PG Devin Watson, who had offers from UConn, Texas A&M, and Oregon State. I won't be surprised if USF is in the bubble discussion a time or 2 this season. Probably an NIT level team again.

Portland lost rebounding machine and team leader Ryan Nicholas, but they bring back every other contributor from a team that upset BYU and Gonzaga, in addition to beating solid Bradley and Princeton teams. Watch for Portland to beat Oregon State at home. Portland gets home/home deals with PAC-12 in state rivals Oregon and Oregon State, and this could be their 6th win over one of their in-state PAC-12 rivals since 2000 (3 wins against Oregon, 2 against Oregon State). Both of their PG's are steady hands, and van de Mars and Bailey are my picks to have a breakout season for the Pilots. Bobby Sharp is always a threat to go off like Jimmy Chitwood, as both BYU and Gonzaga learned last season. Like USF, Portland may be in the bubble discussion at some point. They were a long time doormat in the WCC before Reveno became coach, and they haven't made the NCAA Tournament since 1996. Probably an NIT level team, although they could slip to one of the pay to play tourney's if they stumble once too often against a sub 200 RPI opponent, as the Pilots are wont to do even in their best seasons.

San Diego. This is the wild card in the WCC this year. They have the talent to be an NIT or even last 4 in NCAA team, but they have had that talent for 2-3 years now. They can beat anybody, and they can lose to anybody. Can Bill Grier recapture some of the magic that he had when he lead USD to an upset of UConn in the NCAA Tournament in 2008? I doubt it, but he has the horses. With Chris Anderson, Johnny Dee, Duda Sanadze, and Jito Kok, he doesn't have a whole lot of excuses for not being better. San Diego played in, and advanced a couple of rounds in the CIT last season before being knocked out by fellow WCC school Pacific, but they have played in one of the pay to play tourneys for several seasons now. I don't think that will cut it anymore. If USD doesn't breakthrough to the NIT (the NCAA probably isn't a must) I think Grier is done.

Other WCC teams:

Santa Clara is in a hole right now, which is odd, considering that they just re-signed their coach, and they won the CIT and CBI Championships in 2011 and 2013. Those don't mean that much, but they show that the Broncos were at least a solid Top 100 RPI team. They do have Jared Brownridge, so they can be a threat on a given night. I think they'll be slightly better than they were last year, but that's not saying a whole lot. They could sure use an extra year of eligibility from Steve Nash right now.

Pepperdine could surprise a few teams. Stacy Davis is a player. Udenyi was great for a freshman. They are well coached and they have a collective high basketball IQ. I don't think they will be better than 6th in the league this season though.

LMU won't be good this year, but with LMU alum and former NBA Head Coach Mike Dunlap taking the reins from Max Good, watch for LMU to regain a little bit of the swagger they had back in the late 1980's to early 1990's (not all of it--I'm not predicting an Elite 8 run here). He is a strict coach. They will be competitive, possibly as early as next season. He does have a 4 star center in the fold in Patson Siame.

Pacific will be bad. No 2 ways about it. They won the Big West and played in the NCAA tournament 2 years ago, and managed to hand BYU it's worse loss of the year in 2014. The Tigers went on to play in the CBI Semis. But they graduated almost all of their contributors, and they didn't bring in a whole lot of ready to play talent. They are at least 2 years away from competing for the top half of the WCC.

It should be a great season for the Cougars!
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Aug 20, 2014 at 11:34:38am
Message modified by Gentleman Stan on Aug 20, 2014 at 11:43:43am
Gentleman Stan
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Related Threads Topic: Out of state and am DYING for any basketball insights. (oximeter, Aug 20, 2014 at 8:37am)

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