BYU Cougars – 2014
by Dave Bartoo

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Talent:
The Cougars are one of the most difficult teams to profile with their unique culture. Their recruiting over the last decade runs in the 60s and 70s. This is a high-quality mid-major talent level. Accordingly, they play a mid-major schedule. They return 70.3 percent of their offensive production from 2013, but only 52.3 percent of their defensive production, including the loss of defensive anchor Kyle Van Noy. Overall in 2014, I have them ranked No .71 in total roster talent. That rank puts them close to Minnesota, Iowa State, Boston College and Colorado.

Coaching:
The coaching effect of coach Bronco Mendenhall ranks him No. 24. I am split on whether to include him with the mid-major programs or the Power 5. BYU’s schedule is usually between the strength of the two FBS segments. He is just over a plus-1 game coach per season. He rarely loses to a program with inferior talent, but has not consistently beat the more talented programs on their schedule. 2014 is a great year to change that profile, as the Cougars get to play two very under-coached Power 5 teams, and another in coaching transition. Mendenhall is an above average coach with above average results. However, until they change their schedule to be much tougher and include more Power 5 programs, he is still viewed as a mid-major recruiter and a great mid major coach.

Schedule:
The Cougars, when comparing them to the other 65 Big 5 conference teams, have by far and away the easiest SOS in the country. They play a total of three teams with top 30 talent, and seven of the 12 games are against teams with talent rankings outside the top 75. No Power 5 conference team plays more than four. If the playoff committee is serious about random strength-of-schedule rankings providing validation to getting a playoff berth, even a 12-0 BYU team is not getting a berth. Their schedules are just far too easy. However, unlike any other mid-major talented team, they can control their scheduling. They can simply look to Notre Dame to see what an independent schedule looks like that will warrant attention from the playoff committee. Anything less than eight Power 5 conference teams on their schedule is not enough and they will still be lacking a 13th game. I still like my idea of the Big 12 champ playing the highest ranked team between Notre Dame and BYU during championship week. All three need an extra game, and it would not create redundancy in a head-to-head matchup.
The Cougars have just five games on the road in 2014, including their first two games. BYU opens with a long road trip to UConn. The Huskies have a talent level very close to BYU, but they have a new head coach. I like BYU in this one.
Week 2 takes the Cougars to Austin, Texas, to face a Longhorn team that they absolutely pummeled in 2013 in Provo. In his first two years at Louisville, coach Charlie Strong struggled big time at home and overall just won at a 72 percent, rate when I picked him to win in the preseason. This is well below the national average for a head coach. However, the Horns face much greater talent levels at home this year, and the Cougars drop to 1-1.
The Houston Cougars have a higher talent rank for 2014, but they have to go to Provo with the coaching staff that has posted a strong negative Coach Effect for their first two years. I expect BYU to be the underdog in this game, but the Cougars will win at home with better coaching. The last game before the bye is hosting Virginia. The Cavs have in their favor a huge talent gap. However, coach Mike London is one of the worst in the country on the road, especially when he is picked to win. The CFB Matrix system says to take Virginia, but it is not without personal discomfort. BYU goes into their first bye at 2-2.
The next five games oscillate between home and away for the Cougars, starting with an in-state visit to from Utah State. The Aggies have been one of the strongest over-performers of their talent in recent seasons, but the talent gap between BYU and USU is far too large to not pick BYU.
The schedule goes against the Cougars in Week 6 with a trip to Central Florida. The coaching effect is an edge to coach George O'Leary, the talent edge is slightly to BYU and UCF is at home. I am taking the Knights.
BYU gets a win back at home against Nevada to move to 4-3, but drop to .500 in Boise the following week on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium.
BYU gets three straight at home and all are against teams outside the top 100 in talent rankings. These are easy calls of wins over Middle Tennessee, UNLV and Savannah State. If they get tripped up it will be the coach Rick Stockstill-led Blue Raiders. He is one of Coach Effect’s favorite mid-major head coaches. The season is wrapped up with a road trip to Cal. I am taking Cal, but a loss for coach Sonny Dykes just might be a huckleberry on his tenure. The Cougars finish 8-4 in 2014.
Dave's Quick and Dirty CFB Matrix Preview:
At a CFB Matrix 2014 roster talent ranking of no. 71, the Cougars have a talent edge over eight teams on their schedule. This puts their baseline projected record at 8-4. They get plus-1 game adjustment for Houston, but minus-2 games for UCF and Boise State. This takes their projected record to 7-5. Mendenhall has been a consistent plus-1 game coach per year to bump the projection for BYU at 8-4.

Dave Bartoo | July 22, 2014 at 5:46 pm | Tags: BYU, cougars, independent, provo | Categories: BYU | URL: http://wp.me/p4pNc6-42c
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