Sep 19, 2014
9:09:53am
9:09:53am
A couple points I've never seen about sports betting on the board:
The early line moves can be deceptive.
At the beginning of the week (Sun-Wed) the limits are extremely low. At the Wynn (first legitimate book to open CFB line) the largest bet you can make is only $2,000. This is to limit risk and to take bets from the pros until the number gets massaged into a place that the book is then more confident in to take larger bets. So on Sunday afternoon at the Wynn a measly $2,000 can move a CFB line (especially if that money comes from a respected bettor.) At the Wynn it is the same guys that show up week after week and most are personally known by management.
(For some more background, there is one line for CFB bets on Sunday afternoon. Everyone else is watching/betting NFL. A group waits in line for the lines to come out. It's like Christmas every week as the bookmaker brings out the new sheets, literally still warm from the printer with the lines for next week. As you wait in line, the numbers will move. And the only reason they are moving is due to the bet someone else just made in front of you.)
My personal experience is at the Wynn but applies to all books generally also. Early in the week pros can easily "set up" moves by making limit wagers early in the week with the plan to make larger wagers later in the week. I have no evidence that this is the case with the BYU game but....
A completely independent pro bettor I know that does not know my relationship to BYU told me he is on BYU -14 (once the number got down there he took it). Once he told me this, I checked the line at 2 of the sharper books (the Greek and Cantor) and both had the line at -15 yesterday. So my basic market reading-handicapping of the game tells me that BYU is the team to bet at -14 which means they should at least win the game.
Point being, BYU is in a great spot to win. As a fan the number still seems too high, but I am fully expecting a 2 TD win. (Oh, and Phil Steele has us winning 30-17).
One last betting point. In general the best line moves to pay attention to are on Thursday morning when the limits open up ($10,000 to $50,000). This is obviously in general. Of course the early line moves are important and in CFB the late Friday night/early Sat morning moves are important.
The early line moves can be deceptive.
At the beginning of the week (Sun-Wed) the limits are extremely low. At the Wynn (first legitimate book to open CFB line) the largest bet you can make is only $2,000. This is to limit risk and to take bets from the pros until the number gets massaged into a place that the book is then more confident in to take larger bets. So on Sunday afternoon at the Wynn a measly $2,000 can move a CFB line (especially if that money comes from a respected bettor.) At the Wynn it is the same guys that show up week after week and most are personally known by management.
(For some more background, there is one line for CFB bets on Sunday afternoon. Everyone else is watching/betting NFL. A group waits in line for the lines to come out. It's like Christmas every week as the bookmaker brings out the new sheets, literally still warm from the printer with the lines for next week. As you wait in line, the numbers will move. And the only reason they are moving is due to the bet someone else just made in front of you.)
My personal experience is at the Wynn but applies to all books generally also. Early in the week pros can easily "set up" moves by making limit wagers early in the week with the plan to make larger wagers later in the week. I have no evidence that this is the case with the BYU game but....
A completely independent pro bettor I know that does not know my relationship to BYU told me he is on BYU -14 (once the number got down there he took it). Once he told me this, I checked the line at 2 of the sharper books (the Greek and Cantor) and both had the line at -15 yesterday. So my basic market reading-handicapping of the game tells me that BYU is the team to bet at -14 which means they should at least win the game.
Point being, BYU is in a great spot to win. As a fan the number still seems too high, but I am fully expecting a 2 TD win. (Oh, and Phil Steele has us winning 30-17).
One last betting point. In general the best line moves to pay attention to are on Thursday morning when the limits open up ($10,000 to $50,000). This is obviously in general. Of course the early line moves are important and in CFB the late Friday night/early Sat morning moves are important.
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