(forgive me if similar posts have already been made, I didn't really go through the board before posting this).

Looking at the future schedules of all the teams in P5 conferences, it seems like there are a lot of scenarios where an undefeated BYU is left out, even to some 2 loss (and maybe even 3 loss teams).

For the sake of this analysis, lets assume every team currently ranked would lose to the higher ranked teams they'll still play this year, here is how the 12 NY6 slots would likely be filled (I realize upsets happen every week, so there is no more science to this than any other prediction, but it would suggest the odds are against us).

Assume Florida St, Oregon, Alabama, and Oklahoma win out, then obviously they are going to the Rose and Sugar bowls (4 team playoff).

With 1 of the remaining 8 slots reserved for a G5 team (we'll just assume that ends up being ECU at this point), then there are 7 at large bids remaining.

Here is how those would likely be filled:

1. B1G champ (assuming Mich st wins remaining games and conf championship. They beat Neb, Mich, Oh st, penn st, and div champ (likely Neb or Wisc). only loss is undef oregon.
2. Big XII runner up (assume baylor, loses 1 game to undef oklahoma, and beats texas, ok state, k state, ttech, wv, tcu)
3. ind ND (loses 1 game to undef Fl state, beats mich, stanford, ASU, USC)
4. SEC 1 loss (Assume Auburn, loses to undef Alabama, but beats kstate, lsu, miss st, so carolina, ole miss, A&m, georgia) would probably even push for 4th playoff spot, so definitely NY6 if they could beat all those teams.

So that leaves 3 remaining at large spots, and this is how those 3 might be filled.

5. 2 loss SEC (assume A&M, loses in conf play to Alabama and auburn so not in champ game, but beats so carolina, miss st, ole miss, mizzou, lsu) Have hard time seeing committee rank this A&M team below an undefeated BYU.

6. Another 2 loss SEC (assume Georgia, loses in conf play to So carolina and Auburn, but beats clemson, tenn, mizzou, florida, gt) not as strong as 2 loss A&M, and loses div tie to so carolina, so not in conf champ game, but could still see committee ranking this Georgia team higher than an undefeated BYU.

That leaves only 1 spot BYU could take.

Competing for this spot would be.

a 3 loss but div champ So Carolina team (with losses to A&M and Auburn, and then to Alabama in champ game, but with wins over ECU (who would be getting that G5 NY6 spot in assumed scenario), Georgia (also getting NY6 spot in assumed scenario), mizzou, tenn, florida, and clemson). with only losses to possibly top 6 ranked Alabama, Auburn, and A&M, a 3 loss div champ so carolina with the quality wins mentioned could be hard one for committee to take over an undefeated BYU over.

or

B1G runner up (assume Nebraska or Wisconsin, depending who wins that game. If Neb wins, and wins out except conf loss to Mich state, they would be div champ and play mich state again in conf champ game. assuming they lose again to mich state, they would have lost twice to only 1 1-loss team, with wins over Miami, Wisc.) committee might rank BYU higher than 2 loss Neb with only 2 quality wins.
or
Assume Wisc beats Nebraska in conf play, and then wisconsin loses to Mich state in conf champ game, then they are the 2 loss Big team with only losses to LSU and 1 loss mich state, and are conf champs, and wins vs so florida, neb, and rest of B1G (but no oh state or Michigan). Again, committee might rank an undefeated BYU higher than a 2 quality loss wisconsin team with only 1 real quality win (Neb), but I don't know that's a given.

or

1 loss ACC runner up (assume Duke, goes undefeated through remaining acc games, is div champ and loses to Fl state in conf champ (1 loss to undefeated fl state, with wins over Miami, GT, Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, VT, NC, WF). Its probably more unlikely Duke wins those than BYU wins their remaining games, with GT, Virginia and VT their "quality wins". but it is possible. Hard to see a div champ P5 team with only 1 loss to an undefeated fl state getting left out of NY6, but you never know.

Obviously there are other scenarios where many of these teams to do lose to the teams ranked below them, and there are not 4 undefeated teams (5 if you count BYU), plus 4 (or 5) 1-loss P5 teams, and then 3 2-loss p5 teams whose only losses were to the other undefeated or 1 loss teams.

But in this model here, there are 4 or even 5 SEC teams taking one of those 12 slots, making it hard for an independent undefeated BYU to get in.