What gives you the best probability of a win depends on what you think your

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Oct 30, 2014
9:37:04pm

garyfan

defense can do. That's subjective.

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garyfan

Bio page: garyfan
Joined: Sep 19, 2013
Last login: Apr 23, 2024
Total posts: 37,543 (3,850 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

If I were Petrino, I take a safety with 3:50 left to make it 31-30 and make FSU

Cougarmus Prime

10/30/14 9:05pm

Yes. You are wrong

BlueFrog

10/30/14 9:07pm

If you do that a field goal beats you rather than simply tying the game.

dfudge

10/30/14 9:07pm

True. But as it was, FSU only needed to go 40 yards for a TD and the lead.

garyfan

10/30/14 9:13pm

It's a ridiculous idea. They wouldn't have had to go much more than 40 yards

rggee

10/30/14 9:19pm

But if Louisville can hold FSU to 20 yards, punting is stupid because with only

garyfan

10/30/14 9:33pm

lol true. But you make decisions that give you the best probability of a win.

rggee

10/30/14 9:35pm

What gives you the best probability of a win depends on what you think your

garyfan

10/30/14 9:37pm

Louisvilles last 3 punts were 31,31 and 32 yards. And on those punts

ayfan

10/30/14 9:50pm

Only a great kicker could push them back to the 25 on a kick after a safety

rggee

10/30/14 10:00pm

okay so maybe not the 25, but Louisville does have an elite kicker

ayfan

10/30/14 10:10pm

not sure how you expect to give them the ball on their own 25. That's extremely

The Dude Abides

10/30/14 10:02pm

Uh......no

rggee

10/30/14 9:07pm

You think giving them points and the ball is better than just giving them the

workindev

10/30/14 9:08pm

Yes, Prime said that.....

Heinz57

10/30/14 9:09pm

Wow. That is 10 times worse than the idiotic Wyoming decision in 96.

Shimmy

10/30/14 9:12pm

thats exactly what i though of

Azul_Rust

10/30/14 9:14pm

I'm with these fellas.

The Dude Abides

10/30/14 9:12pm

Greenrake dup account?

newey-west

10/30/14 9:14pm

hindsight: your's may have given a better result

libertycoug

10/30/14 9:15pm

Lot of people here disagreeing with you, but I think you're right

BertoChavez

10/30/14 9:38pm

An average punt puts them at midfield. An average safety return gets to the 40

Shimmy

10/30/14 9:48pm

But you don't get an average punt from your end zone. You almost always get a

BertoChavez

10/30/14 9:51pm

You kick from the 20 after a safety. Do you really want to give up 2 points

The Dude Abides

10/30/14 9:53pm

Yep. Even 20 yards isn't worth 2 point in a 3 point game.

Shimmy

10/30/14 9:55pm

Wrong. You don't get an average punt from the back of your endzone.

Shimmy

10/30/14 9:55pm

The effect isn't as bad when you still have the full ~15 yards to snap, but it's

BertoChavez

10/30/14 10:01pm

case in point: they got the ball at the 42.

BertoChavez

10/30/14 10:02pm

If you want to engage in result based analysis, I'm fine with that. That play

Shimmy

10/30/14 10:06pm

*6 rather than 4

garyfan

10/30/14 10:09pm

Probably 7 with 2 pts conversion

rggee

10/30/14 11:02pm

*7 or 5 rather than 4

garyfan

10/30/14 11:13pm

Louisville has a very below average punter so assuming an average return is

ayfan

10/30/14 9:54pm

Normally this would be a bad idea, but Louisville punter was averaging 36 yard

ayfan

10/30/14 9:44pm

He wasn't deep in the endzone. They could run their normal punt formation.

Shimmy

10/30/14 9:49pm

To clarify - not saying to do this in every similar instance. But to me, FSU

Cougarmus Prime

10/30/14 10:34pm

Ohhhh thanks for clarifying. Still wrong.

The Dude Abides

10/30/14 10:52pm

I bet you could get a position on Bronco's staff with these strategies!

dfudge

10/31/14 11:54am

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