And this "a program like" talk has to be tempered. It takes a back seat to the quality of the team in a given season, and Memphis is a quality team this year, even if they aren't a quality program in the long-term history sense of the word.
This is a case where advanced metrics are pretty helpful. Their D has been significantly better than ours, our offense has been quite a bit better than theirs. It looks like a fairly even matchup.