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Jan 26, 2015
7:00:23pm
Looks like cscougar might be on to something. On the Le Batard show on ESPN
radio today, he had a guest who is a statistician (I think he has done work for the NFL, regarding injures, if I understood correctly) who claims he has crunched the numbers and found that the Patriots are a huge outlier statistically in term of fumbles since 2007, when teams started prepping their own footballs, compared to all other NFL teams (esp. those who don't play in domes).

He claimed their fumble rate dropped precipitously in 2007, compared to prior years, and has stayed abnormally low ever since. He said they fumble something like every 75 plays or so, compared to an average of 48 or so for everyone else. He also said individual players' fumble rates drop when they join the Pats, and then rise again when they move to ther teams. He says one potential reason for this would be underinflated footballs, which are easier to hold onto and not fumble.

Le Batard has been one to disparage Deflategate, but he was clearly impressed and intrigued by the data. Later I heard Mad Dog and Sedano & Stink discussing the fumble rate data as well. Looks like this may be a major new twist in this controversy. And cscougar was right there at the forefront! When I heard the segment in Le Batard, I immediately remebered his recent post on the Patriots fumble rate.

I didn't catch the name of the guest presenting he data, but a quick internet search yielded this site, which may or may not be the same guy. Very interesting stuff for those inclined to data analysis.

http://pjmedia.com/lifestyle/2015/01/23/deflated-patriots-statistically-impossible-fumble-record/

Edit: here is the original site, I think -- http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jan 26, 2015 at 7:00:23pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Jan 26, 2015 at 7:04:35pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Jan 26, 2015 at 7:17:26pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Jan 26, 2015 at 7:18:04pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Jan 26, 2015 at 7:23:57pm
Japan Coug
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Japan Coug
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Related Threads Topic: Interesting Patriot fumble numbers (warning: long, lotsa numbers, deflate-gate) (cscougar, Jan 25, 2015 at 9:32am)

Other Related Threads:
So here are a few stats for cscougar, since he cares so much about them. (Broda, Jan 27, 2015 at 10:03am)
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