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Jan 27, 2015
10:03:55am
So here are a few stats for cscougar, since he cares so much about them.
First, I have to say that I believe fumbles lost might be one of the worst metrics to use to try and prove that the NE Patriots have been using deflated balls since 2007 to their advantage. A fumble has SO many variables that you cannot even begin to try to pin the cause on one single thing. Often it is the result of a well timed hit, a helmet hitting directly on the ball, a missed blocking assignment, a bad snap, or a million other things. I am sure that the 1mm and the 1.5% more force a player can exert (See sports science http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12226086) is what has caused the drop in fumbles for NE from 2007 onward (sarcastic sigh). You say you want facts to back up the opposing opinion, yet you grabbed some obscure stats about fumbles and think that is the only thing that matters.

Let me tell you just a couple things that could have attributed to these "facts".

2007 was the first year in which all 5 linemen that got the majority of the starts returned to get the majority of starts the next year. This also happened in 2008 and 2009. Linemen need to be able to communicate to pick up complex blitzes and stunts. Just look at the sack numbers for Tom Brady: 2005 - 26, 2006- 26, 2007 - 21, 2009 - 16 (Matt Cassel played in 2008 and was sacked 47 times, but that wasn't because of the linemen, but his lack of experience). The line improved, and Tom Brady was much more experience (more on this later) which led to less hits that could cause fumbles (Tom Brady had 11 fumbles in 2006).

Corey Dillon averaged almost 3 fumbles per year (2.7) played his last year in 2006. The other running backs had 2 fumbles in 2006 and 0 in 2007 (stats vary on this but I am going with ESPN stats).

The top running back in 2006 was no longer on the team in 2007. Only 3 of the top 7 receivers in 2006 were in the top 7 in 2007 (and the 2nd leading receiver dropped to 5th) The top 2 receivers in 2007 were not on the roster in 2006. That is a lot of different people handling the ball the majority of the snaps.

Experience, especially at quarterback. You cannot stress how important this is in every facet of the game. More experience means the ball is out quicker, in a better spot, and to the correct person the majority of the time. This results in less QB hits, the receivers are in better positions to catch the ball without being immediately hit, and the running calls being made to put the RBs in better positions to gain yards.

All of these things COULD have lead to less fumbles, but honestly there is not one thing that you can point to as the causation of a thing like the number of fumbles a team has from one year to the next. I actually dislike both teams in the superbowl, but this "deflategate" is out of control. Can't wait for this to be over.
Broda
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Broda
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Related Threads Topic: Interesting Patriot fumble numbers (warning: long, lotsa numbers, deflate-gate) (cscougar, Jan 25, 2015 at 9:32am)

Other Related Threads:
Looks like cscougar might be on to something. On the Le Batard show on ESPN (Japan Coug, Jan 26, 2015 at 7:00pm)
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