I don't think the market will be too cluttered for Netflix because I think the subscriber base is going to continue to expand big time. Netflix is almost half the price as HBO, with far more content. HBO has a legendary name, and will do quite well. I enjoy the feedback though because it is anybody's guess as to how things will go for a company like Netflix.
Working in the pay tv industry I really like the way that Netflix is trending and making their brand. I think they are going to continue to get bigger and stronger....but I certainly understand the skepticism.