In the last round of realignment, many were predicting that WVU would go to the ACC. It stays at 15 members and maintains the ND agreement.

The BIG takes Kansas and Iowa State, both of whom are AAU schools.

Texas, which does not like to share, would not be a candidate for either the SEC or the Pac-12 because both are egalitarian and both would require the LHN to be folded into the conference network. Texas would become independent.

The SEC might make a play for OU or OSU.

The Pac-12, once Texas was off the table (in 2010) declined to extend and invitation to OU. They might reconsider but they might decide to at 12 members.

If the breakup occurs during the current CFP contract, the remaining 4-6 Big 12 teams would quickly add more members to continue receiving a P5 share of the revenue. But after the contract expires, it becomes another G5, like the American.

In short, the power conferences don't divest themselves of any existing members and only choose schools from the Big 12 that make sense to them; athletics is just one of many factors in that decision.

The P4 consolidate their power and divide future spoils four ways. Nothing dictates that they have to have 16 members.

This moverment, that began in 2010, is more than just about sports and certainly isn't about money. It's all about power; money us just a byproduct of that power.
A Big 12 implosion would reduce the number of schools who control the future of college athletics and that would be fine with the current power brokers

In all the the realignment that has occurred, only three outsiders, Utah, TCU and Louisville, were invited into the Club. All the BE teams, except Temple, found homes in other power conferences. If the Big 12 crumbles, some of the former members would be invited into the remaining power conferences but no outsider would be included.

IMO, a Big 12 implosion is the worse possible event if a school is currently outside the Club.