With the end of the NBA finals I found myself watching highlights of Women’s Tennis and Soccer and got the itch to do some data analysis on our coming season because this is way more fun. I tire of subjective conjecture and decided to get a more objective look at the coming season so I did a shallow dive into the rosters of our opponents and made some logical connections. There are some basic assumptions that need to be understood before we continue:

1. Clearly injuries can’t be predicted but we know they will happen so don’t jump down that rabbit hole. That said, if Taysom goes down all bets are off. Otherwise, I think we’ll be able to hold to these predictions with the normal cracks and dings.
2. With Taysom, Jamal, our WRs, and an improved OL, our offense WILL be good if not VERY good. If you don’t agree, just stop reading now. There is no question Taysom is the definition of a dark horse Heisman, and it is very possible Jamal and Mathews find themselves playing on Sunday next year. Koroma, Ului, and Tuni will be better… along with Blackmon, Kurtz, and I’m a huge Algie Brown fan. We will put points on the board.
3. On the other hand, our D is unknown and will be our weakness. We don’t know if Bronson will pressure the QB, we don’t know if our backfield will stop the pass, and we don’t even know who our best LB is. I think the D will be better than last year, but that doesn’t provide a great deal of comfort for me.

With that on the table let us begin:

Nebraska:

They are returning 6 starters on both sides of the line. Their QB started last season and is expected to be throwing to last year’s 3rd most productive WR. They lost their stud RB to the NFL and likely lost their identity. They have a new coach so they will be spending all summer and fall finding out who they are. Mike Riley is a passing coach. I can’t forget getting lit up by the Beavers last time we played. I think Coach Riley knows how to beat Bronco, and will certainly bring that with him. The huskers have the QB but lost some starters on the OL and don’t have a flashy WR. They will have a good idea who we are but neither of us will really know who they are.

If the Huskers come out passing efficiently I think it will be a shoot-out and the home team will likely come out on top. Otherwise, the run will be stuffed and our O will be too dynamic giving the cougars a very solid start.

Boise:

They return 9 starters on offense and 8 on Defense. One of those returning is not last years starting QB or the #1 RB Ajayi. However, they have last year’s #1 WR. With the loss of Ajayi and Bronco calling the shots for our D the run will not be effective. Unfortunately, this forces them to pass. This is how that scenario looks… a SO QB, Ryan Finley, will be playing his first game away against the Cougars in our first home game at LES for the season. He will just have played a P5 Washington so this will definitely be a refining furnace revealing to the Broncos what their future is at QB. That is just too big of a stage and really shifts things in BYU’s favor. Also, if there is a MUST win game for us it is this one. There is no question the Broncos have had our number but they also have gotten lucky. A bizarre failed 2pt conversion and a shot at us last year as we regroup form the loss of Taysom makes this series look more lopsided than it really is. Boise is a team that has been better coached and does a better job developing players than BYU and if we want to be seen as the top G5 and thus find our way in bigger bowl games we need to prove we are better than they are.

I can’t see this game being another blow out, not for either side. I think being at home and having a SR and talented Offense will be the difference but I’m not too confident.

UCLA:

We are in trouble. Neuheisel is not a QB that is afraid of the stage and can pass the ball. He is a JR so there really will not be much of a drop off at the QB position. He is not as mobile as Hundley so to me that means the ball will be in the air more. It will be in the air often, sailing to all their top WRs from last year. Their RB also started last year. This is a team that has 10, TEN starters returning on offense and 8 on the D. Does this mean pay back from the blow out we handed them a few years back…? It could be. By all accounts this team is a ranked team and one of the top from the Pac if not the top. Bronco has shown that he can plan for big games (2009 OU) but it is more important we win against Boise and unless this team is more of a façade than last year we should just find a silver lining in the loss and enjoy the game. Nope, I’m not giving us much of a chance here, I just don’t see it. Our only hope is to get in Neuheisel’s head. An early pick and strongly introducing his face to the ground multiple times is all we can hope for. It’s just going to make me more angry when their LB Jack comes in and scores. This is a game we can lose respectfully and walk away feeling just fine about ourselves.

Michigan:

8 coming back on O and 7 on D. They stank last year but not because they didn’t have good players. They’re all 4* guys who were not motivated. Jimmy Dockers will change that unless he recently suffered a Phineas Gage injury (did you hear the interview on Collin Cowherd!). Their QB was #2 on the depth chart last year as is their WR and RB. The big house will freak our guys out, just like Florida State did last time we went there. We did not play a good game then because of the stage, not FSU. The prior 3 games will be enough for them to find who they are, plug holes, and pick up some momentum. I suppose the same is true for us though.

I think if we overcome the stage and execute cleanly we will come out with a W. I believe we should win this game but the big house and their raw talent is nothing to overlook. My bet is they will become a running team. This will allow us to stay in the game and really put everything in the hands of Taysom. Let’s hope he will be able to beat them with his arm so we don’t sacrifice his legs.

Conn:

Last year’s back up QB (a SO) passing to last year’s #3 WR from the AAC doesn’t scare me and probably will not be an exciting game. Their RB returns from last year but he will get stuffed in Bronco’s D. 8 starters coming back on D and only 6 on O. We will run away with this game. It’s at home, should be a stress free relief and probably a great game to regroup. Nuf said.

ECU:

It seems to be the same story here. They were a surprise last year but that was due to a solid QB who is now gone. Only 5 coming back to anchor the D makes for another high scoring game for us at home. BTW, did anyone see that wild game last season vs. UCF?

Cincinnati:

Coming to Provo from one of the coolest named cities in the country this game is scary. They have Gunner Keil and 8 coming back on offences with all their top WRs and RBs. unless our D has emerged unlike anyone expected we are going to get LIT-UP. However, they only have 5 coming back on their D so THEY too will get LIT-UP. This may be one of the most entertaining games of the season. This game may have much bigger implications in the long run though. Our chances of being selected into the Big12 will be smaller if they ever decided to become a 12 team conference. Not unlike the flash in the pan that was West Virginia’s success which got them in the Big12 so too may a few stronger seasons than BYU move Cincy up on the board. We need this one!

San Jose:

They have 10 back on offense with a SR. QB who was their starter last year. They have all their WRs back along with their starting leading rusher from 2014. This doesn’t paint a good picture. That picture is the exact likeness of the proverbial ‘trap game”. Was it 2010 when they sent us further into the despair during the worst season of the Bronco era? I don’t know because we have to prepare for next week vs. the SEC.

Missouri:

I’m going to say we have a chance better than one in a million. They only have 6 coming back on each side of the ball, one of which is their QB. They did lose their WRs though. Their SR starting RB is still on the team so the question is… will they pass or will they run? If they can get the passing game going why don’t we just line this one up next to UCLA and try to stay competitive with no hard feelings at the end. If they don’t…. they will not put up a lot of points. Either way, we’ll put up some decent points…. Under the former scenario if there was math to do it would probably add up to a cougar W. I think we’ll put up at least 20 points. And allow the D 17. This will be a good game.

Fresno State:

They have 6 back on O and only 5 back on D. Their RB was the starter last year and that’s all they got. We lose this game I’ll be ANGRY.

Utah State:
Chuckie. Yep he’s back. I’d venture a guess that Chuckie has a slightly smaller chance than Taysom of finishing the season because of his slender stature. If Chuckie vs. Taysom happens on the grid iron rather than having a thumb war on the sidelines with their legs wrapped up like a gorditas I will be QUITE surprised. The Aggies bring back 9 on offense and that doesn’t count Mr. Keeton. I believe that means they only lose their top WR. This is the offense that blew up our D last year. Vigil is gone, how was he so good in our game again? And the Taysom slayer is gone too. That and a few other losses add up to only 6 back on D. Frankly, this game is a great way to finish the season. As fans, even if we are sitting on 5 losses I’d still be pretty interested in this one. I’ll say that this game will probably reveal nothing that both fan bases won’t already be expecting at kick off. Both teams will know who they are. We’ll know the caliber of teams each has beaten and lost to. We’ll know then but right now, it looks like a pretty solid Cougar W but that can change quite a bit after a season. There is another reason this game is huge… the state of Utah recruiting. Unfortunately, BYU can make up no ground with a win of any kind. But a loss… wow, that will kill any interest in the coming crop of solid Utah HS players to play for BYU. BYU will be viewed on the same level if not possibly lower than USU with the Utes as clearly the best choice in the state for football. We need this game.


Of all the games no loss will hurt more than to Boise and Utah State. Those have grander implications than a loss to the likes of ECU or even San Jose. I think we have a very solid chance with Nebraska and Missouri. I have a great fear of Cincy and the big house. I’m betting we go 2 and 2 in September. We’ll drop either Cincy or San Jose and one to either Mizzu or Utah State. So what is that…. 8 and 4 with a Bowl W….

Sorry fellas, looks like I devised another 8-5 season. But it will be the best gosh darn 8-5 we’ve ever had!


What say ye?