I saw Baylor a few times and wasn't super impressed, they struggled defensively with lesser opponents. So just cause they lost to Baylor and I thought Baylor was overrated last year. That's it. No real solid football reasons.
Like I said, just think it's fun to try and guess. That's one of my favorite things with college football is that no one really knows what is going to happen. Even "experts" are often clueless, of which preseason polls are indicative.