The TV market consideration does not make BYU the clear choice. Now I'm not saying that BYU doesn't bring more viewers than UCF or Cincy (or other candidate), or a better brand of football, or better academics, or better sports altogether, but those considerations all play second fiddle to size of TV market. The reason why TV market is important is because the payouts from the TV contracts are tied to the number of cable subscribers of the relevant TV markets.

BYU is the SL market, which is #33
UCF is the Orlando market, which is #19
Cincy is the Cincinnati market, which is #34

I think UCF is the Big-12's first choice for this reason alone. BYU and Cincy are basically equivalent TV markets. BYU has a selling point that they bring viewership all over the place, but that doesn't really contribute to terms of the TV contract. Cincy has a selling point that Cincinnati is one of several adjacent TV markets that together are bigger than the Salt Lake market, but it's doubtful that Cincinnati really captures those markets, much less the Cincinnati market.

Ultimately, BYU brings better football, better sports, more fans, and no strings attached to other conferences. I think that BYU helps the bottom line better than any other candidate (other than UCF), and should be the logical choice.

But who knows? The Big-12 has not been a beacon of rationality in their expansion choices. And it's possible that other metrics such as Sunday play, recruiting, and bringing in yet another time-zone tip the scale against them.

My opinion is that it's a coin-toss between BYU and Cincinnati. I think BYU helps the bottom-line the most, but Sunday play and recruiting could be issues that tilt the scale against them.