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Aug 28, 2015
1:00:31pm
Nebraska game comes down to BYU's yds per carry on first down
The betting line is expecting a high scoring game of Nebraska 36 to BYU 30. Nebraska has a returning QB and receivers. QB is not a great passer and they don't have Abdullah at RB. They will score but without consistent passing game BYU will have its chances.

On the defensive side Nebraska was poor against the run (4.74 yds per attempt) but very good on pass efficiency defense and on 3rd down conversion percentage. They have new coaches but return several starters so the defense may still be similar. They return the D-line but lose the leading tacklers at LB.

The weakness of BYU's offense has been 3 and out's due to too many first down rushes with less than 3 yards gained. Against a team with good pass defense and 3rd down conversion pct. you are dead without good gains on first down. Poor rushing on first down will also put pressure on Hill to run more on 3rd down.

On the other hand if BYU has success rushing on first down, and has short yardage on 3rd down, Hill is very tough to stop.
TomPetty
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TomPetty
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