I base it on the fact that BYU's secondary may actually be WORSE than last year. And how many backup/new/unheralded QBs have had big halves or games against BYU recently? Too many. Plus BYU had LB loses that will hurt the run D.

Add the fact that BYU had zero pass rush most of last year against mediocre teams with poor O lines. Nebraska may be losing starting O linemen, but I guarantee the guys they have are better than who Nevada and USU field.

Also, I happen to think Riley is smart enough to know BYU can't defend the pass week and will attack it...even if only 1 in 4 long passes beats suspect coverage it'd still gonna net lots of points.