BYU's defense will be key, and if they can play well it should be a win. I think your score prediction is how things will turn out. BYU needs a couple of takeaways on defense to keep scoring down. This was a key element of the victories against NE and BS.
I'm glad Tuiloma is back, but I don't expect him to play like he did against NE. His play will help, but if he's just coming back from injury expect a performance like what we saw from Algie, good but not at the level he can produce when fully healthy.
I think the offense should be more consistent and finish a little bit better. Algie will be a little more healthy, with Bernard getting some decent carries as well.
If BYU plays really well without many big mistakes, it could be a larger spread than 7-8 for sure.