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Nov 27, 2015
11:05:15am
LEDSFW All-American
On Brandon Jones USU preview....
He mentions two correlated stats without mentioning HOW to ensure both favorable tendencies occur. I will now add the HOW if everyone doesn't mind.

#2 I believe was improve 3rd down conversions.

#6 As I recall was take advantage of red zone scoring opportunities as BYU ranks #1 in that category.

Of a historic note, I have been complaining for 9 Robert Anae Seasons that he is terrible at a couple of key things and rather than improve, he has gotten worse in a third area.

1. He has always had difficulty getting drives extended between the 50 yardline and opponent's 25 yardline. He starts drives well. Fans forget that you can get two third down conversions from your own 20 out, blow a third at the opponent's 45 and you've wasted a midfield crossing. Suppose that was done on 4 1st down series starts. Then your 3rd down conversion rate is 50%, but you crap out after crossing mid field and never reach the red zone. This has been an Anae tendency for a decade. The downer is he's now having difficulty getting the 3rd down % to boot.

2) Since crossing midfield and extending drives all the way to the 20 seems to be a huge problem in the middle of the easiest part of the field to move chains, the issue of play calling on 3rd down becomes the only and most obvious issue. In tracking Anae's tendencies over the years, it has become painfully (the ANAE WORD IS SHOUTED LOUD ENOUGH TO HEAR DOWN ON THE LV STRIP) revealed that moving the chains ceases to become the first and most obvious mission statement when Anae crosses midfield. ANAE PLAY CALLING is the problem post 50 yardline. When he was forcing BYU to run a spread, his tendency was A-Gap left 47% of the time. When passing it was a sideline fade. These are low% yardage plays. The long passes usually get batted down, picked or fall incomplete OOB most of the time. On rare occasions he would get that big completion but in nearly 9 of ten 1st downs crossing the 50, his second down would be 8 yards or longer. His line presses in situations like that so a lot of holds and IP penalties occur on 2nd down inside the opponent's 50 as well. This is ANAE over 9 years. It is why he is NOT considered a genius in media circles or by opposing coaches. That takes BYU to those really bad 3rd down conversion stats inside the opponent's 50. Inevitable having wasted or screwed the pooch on 1st and 2nd down in an area of the field always most vulnerable, he turns 3rd into a long yardage down and wastes it.

The other thing is if screws up 3rd down when he's actually successful on 2nd or those rare occasions when he calls a good 4-6 yard gainer on 1st and faces a 3rd and 1 to 3 yards. You would think in those situations ANAE would think, just move the chains. But no he goes back to low % fade routes or runs a deep back into an A gap again against an opponent's front seven stacked tighter than sardines in a can at the LOS. Anae us the most stubborn, ridiculous play caller between the 50 and 25 ever. No man could be as consistently bad at this one aspect of the OC position and remain employed. In 9 years he has established these tendencies so solidly that it is as if he were handprints on the sidewalk of a Hollywood Chinese Theater. This is WHY improving this is so critical to making #3 happen.

3. Have JABECK or ATUAIA call plays between the 50 and 25, anybody but ANAE. The man has a 44% chance of getting points after his offense crosses the 50, but nearly 100% after reaching to opponent's 20. That was not always the case as his red zone offenses were bad at times, but he seems to have figured out how to get a score once he's reached the hardest part of the field. Great, for me it is actually a sign that he CAN IMPROVE he CAN LEARN and therfore it gives me a tiny bit of hope that he COULD become the 500 yard, 40 ppg OC that BYU needs. But he's too close to the tell between the 50 and 20 to get it right at this point in his career. Getting BYU moved from the 59 to the 20 is the problem. A good OC gets points on 67% of drives that cross the 50. You can see why getting that 25-30 yards after crossing midfield us so critical. ANAE is able to score if the team can carry him that 25-30 yards. ANAE needs his staff to tell him to shut up, listen, take counsel, and select plays that will be high % success completions and a good mix of rushes between the tackles, sweeps, backside advances against the grain, mixing it up. I prefer plays designed to get 3-7 yards on 1st down...keep the chains moving.

It isn't that going for the quick strike or inside run is always bad. But you can't be so consistently drawn to do that on given does and by series that opponent knows you like their mother's pot roast. ANAE is unbelievably bad inside the 50 until he reaches the 20. Correct tgat and BYU would have won 8 more games the last 3 years and won some close games as blowout victories. ANAE'S failures in this one area is what causes most people's anguish with him, why many knowledgeable people just shake their heads at him. Correct this Bronco and you'll play for top 10 rankings every year.

We'll unless one of your own hot headed defenders extends an opponent's game winning scoring drive with another late hit. You Bronco have with your defenders lost 14 of 42 games that way. But let's fix at least ONE thing at a time.

BTW things seemingly improved....

Time management and Time-out management. Bronco has finally gotten much better with these.

Sacks - in every Bronco Mendenhall season (11) except two, the Cougars have averaged a somewhat anemic 1.68 sacks per game. In 5 of those years, it was exactly 1.68 sacks per game. The only 2 years that were significantly different were Ziggy's Sr. Year and now Bronson's Sr. Year. BYU ranks 10th in the nation in DLine play. The improvement to me seems to be personnel driven. So from a recruiting standpoint, BYU needs to target tgat one Ziggy/Bronson like guy destined to go play in the SEC and win him over to BYU. Keep that pipeline filled so that you have one of those Sr's every freak'ng year. With BYU'S tremendous success getting linebackers it seems it needs a good solid NG, a solid WSDE and a massive presence at the SSDE position to be great defensively year in and year out. BYU'S secondary has been extremely good, ranks in the top 25 nationally in several statistics. WHY? The sacks and QB hurries. They go hand in hand.

I honestly see things where Bronco is getting better, and clear things ANAE could do to become great if he set aside his ego and stopped blaming players for poor execution when his play calling between the 59 and 25 generally sucks bad eggs. Improve those tomorrow and BYU wins by 10/more points in Logan.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Nov 27, 2015 at 11:05:15am
Message modified by LEDSFW on Nov 27, 2015 at 11:21:26am
Message modified by LEDSFW on Nov 27, 2015 at 11:24:19am
LEDSFW
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