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Nov 29, 2015
2:42:44pm
EV94305 Starter
Bowl possibilities: The definitive guide.
This is helpful (from a Wassu writer):

"When it comes to selecting the teams for the remaining bowls, it's helpful to keep a few things in mind. First, forget about the divisions -- they're only used to select the Pac-12 Championship Game participants. For these bowl games, you need to think of the Pac-12 as a single table, ordered by conference record -- overall record is technically not part of the selection criteria. (Although we all know more wins overall make teams generally more attractive to bowls.)
Second, keep in mind that the rest of these bowl selections don't strictly follow the standings. Think of it more like a draft, where the Alamo Bowl gets the first pick of the remaining eligible teams, then the Holiday Bowl gets the next pick of the remaining eligible teams, etc.

"Now, the Alamo Bowl committee can't just pick whoever they want; they have to select from among the team(s) with the best remaining record(s) and team(s) within one loss of those team(s). Same for the Holiday Bowl and Foster Farms Bowl."

So Stanford to Rose and Oregon to Alamo. Holiday then gets to choose among USC, WSU, Utah, and UCLA. Probably USC. (In fact, I don't think it matters whether USC or Stanford wins the championship. Stanford, Oregon, and USC will occupy the first three bowl spots.) Then Farm gets to choose among WSU, Utah, and UCLA. That's a crap shoot. Let's assume they pick WSU for novelty, hoping their bowl-starved fans make the trip. Sun then picks between Utah and UCLA. Let's assume they pick UCLA, for sake of argument. Then Vegas is stuck with Utah, whether they like it or not, because Cal, ASU and Washington are all more than one loss removed from Utah.

But, what if the Farm does choose Utah? Then Sun picks between WSU and UCLA. If they pick UCLA, then WSU is locked into Vegas for the same reason Utah would be. If Sun picks WSU, then Vegas can choose among UCLA, Cal, ASU, and Washington. Name and overall record make UCLA the obvious choice.

The last possibility is that Farm stuns everyone and picks UCLA. Sun then chooses between WSU and Utah, with the non-choice being locked in to Vegas.

So, from the BYU point of view, assuming we go to Vegas, the likely opponents are UCLA, WSU, or Utah. Any of those three could be a fun game.

Now, from the AAC website (assuming BYU goes to Hawaii):

"If the American champion finishes as the highest-ranked team among the champions of Conference USA, the Mountain West Conference, the Mid-American Conference and the Sun Belt Conference, but does not qualify for the College Football Playoff, then it would participate in one of the three Host Bowls that will comprise part of the CFP rotation – the AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic, the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl or the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.

"Beyond the access to the College Football Playoff, bowl affiliations from the 2014 to 2019 seasons are as follows. The first five bowls listed will be part of a pool from which the Conference will place its teams. Bowl games will be placed based on best fit for the Conference and its membership."

So the winner of the Temple v. Houston title game goes to NY6.

We then have the loser of that game, Navy, S. Florida, Memphis, and Cincinnati to distribute among Birmingham, St. Petersburg, Miami Beach, Military, and Hawaii bowls.

Navy is locked for Military.

If Houston loses to Temple, they are locked for Birmingham, I'd think. If Temple loses, I think they get a Florida bowl and Memphis goes to Birmingham.

I also bet S. Florida is locked for Miami.

That leaves Cincinnati, or possibly Memphis, having to go to Hawaii. Neither of those is an appealing matchup, since we already beat Cincy this year and brawled with Memphis last year. But maybe Hawaii and the AAC will think a Memphis v. BYU: Brawl II would be a selling storyline.

One caveat. UConn and Cincy are tied in conference, but Cincy has a better overall record, so I assume they are ahead in the pecking order. But even in UConn is considered a possibility for Hawaii, playing another team we already beat this year is not appealing.

Let's all hope for Vegas, it seems.
EV94305
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EV94305
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