I recently gave a presentation on negotiation strategies for attorneys at my state bar. It is fascinating to see how closely the Big12 seems to be following the pattern I discussed.  This is a negotiation being played out in public (at least in part), which is unique. Additionally, some parties have been on different stages but are starting to meet now. For example, Oklahoma has been far ahead of everyone else for some time (on stage 4), whereas Texas just now seems to be getting there.  With that said, take a quick look:

1. Preparation Stage: General recognition of change needed. The meeting last year wherein they decided to conduct a study could fit in here.

2. Preliminary Stage: This is the stage where the parties get to know each other and decide to work on a resolution. This is an important but overlooked stage. If this stage is skipped, it hurts negotiation. I believe that many Big12 members felt that Oklahoma (and specifically Boren) had skipped steps in the process and that is why they demanded the short lived "gag order" that Boren quickly disregarded.  

3. Information Stage: The BIG12 did the analysis so that everyone has a similar set of facts from which to work. Behind these generalized facts are the analysis for each of the schools that they have been preparing as to how expansion impacts them. Thus, part of the preparation is transparent and part is not. I think we are just coming out of this phase.

4. Competitive/Distributive Stage: This is the competitive stage whereby parties claim value for their own position. This is the beginning of setting negotiation lines and values with the strategic view of making "principled consessions."  For example, when Texas says,  “we would get the same money, but lose our branding and having our own channel? Not very compelling. If we get rid of LHN, it will be to change conferences, in my opinion”, this type of statement is a classic value statement setting them up to receive value back if they concede on this point. In this stage, some will use logical argument (Oklahoma and Boren demonstrating that the numbers favor expansion), while others will use threats and warnings (Texas and Oklahoma subtly threatening to leave). This is the stage where it gets a little dirty. We will likely be in this stage for the next month.  To keep your sanity, remember that the various parties will be framing the debate in a way that increases their leverage for future concesssions. Texas has something the others want to take away, so Texas will frame the debate in a way that skews towards them and appear to be against the deal. The harder line Texas draws over the next month, the better deal they can get. Oklahoma on the other hand, has its nuclear option of leaving, which they will subtly play over and over again. They won't say it outright, but they will hint at it depending on how hard of a line Texas draws. I believe both are bluffing. However, the schools they are trying to persuade are the other 8 schools. Thus, it becomes a question of what will the non-UT schools concede to UT to get the concession of the LHN. Be patient and don't jump off the cliff based on the uses of threats and warnings.

5. Closing Stage: This is when parties realize an agreement is likely to occur and psychologically commit to the agreement. This is the point where 70%-80% of concessions are actually made.  This is the scary part of the equation for BYU. This is when parties make quick decisions because they are anxious about the deal getting done. A patient party can get concessions that an overly anxious opponent would not typically give becuase of the psychological commitment. Hopefully those favoring BYU are the more patient party. If not, you end up with a decision like Cinci and UCONN, which is unsupported by the data. This stage is likely to occur at the end of this month.

6. Cooperative Stage: Once the settlement is achieved, the parties start to try to maximize the deal, particularly when they will be maintaining an ongoing relationship. Let's imagine they decide to expand and list their candidates in order of preference. At that point, they work together to make onerous conditions for joining. I imagine they will ask for multiple years without revenue, disadvantageous scheduling, etc.  Additionally, they will try to manipulate things to get a better media deal.

There is a lot more that could be said in this analysis and I don't pretend to know what will happen in stages 5-6. But, I'm fairly confident about what has been happening (Stages 1-4). Let's hope that stage 5 breaks our way, and if it does, let's hope we can live with stage 6 conditions.