At the end of the day, I think this is a money discussion. The money from 14 is twice that of 12. Who knows what it looks like when the PAC12 GOR comes up, but you'd miss out on several years a tens of millions for each school. Here's who I think it is:
BYU (#11) - The best program by far
Houston (#12) - Politics
Cincinnati (#13) - Proximity to West Virginia
Colorado State (#14) - Denver and prevents a BYU island