I've spent a fair bit of time researching the MWC conference, its bowl selection process, and it's top teams in hopes of trying to gain some insight into who BYU would end up playing in the Poinsettia Bowl. One of the few things I've learned is that it seems very difficult to judge the MWC conference and its teams this year. Several historically bad teams have earned bowl bids (Hawaii, UNM, Wyoming) while teams that played well over the past five years or so struggled (USU, Nevada). The conference was a horrid 3-14 against P5 opponents (Boise State had wins over Oregon St & Wazzou, SDSU beat Cal) and lost to teams like Rutgers. The division champions both got steamrolled in their regular season finals by New Mexico and CSU. It seems that there are no great teams but several that can win on a good day, especially at home.

It would seem that head coach Craig Bohl (former 3x national champion as coach of NDSU) has turned things around in Laramie. The Wyoming Cowboys finished the season at 8-5, co-champs of the "Mountain Division" after being picked to finish last. They lost in a re-match with SDSU in the MWC title game in Laramie. 2016 was their first winning season since 2011 and came on the heels of a 2-10 record last year. The Cowboys were 6-1 at home (only loss to SDSU in the championship) but were disappointing on the road at 2-4. Wyoming played eight bowl eligible teams, finishing 4-4 (wins vs SDSU, CSU, Air Force, Boise St, and losses versus SDSU, Nebraska, E Michigan, and New Mexico). BYU only played five bowl eligible teams and was 2-3. BYU has finished strong winning seven of eight while Wyoming has lost three of their last four. The Cougars and Cowboys had two common opponents. Wyoming beat Boise State in Laramie 30-28 the week after BYU lost in Boise 28-27. Both teams played USU at home with Wyoming winning 52-28 and BYU winning 28-10. Wyoming has a FPI ranking of 79 per ESPN (similar to Arizona at 77) and the 69th ranked schedule. BYU finished ranked at 31 (similar to Boise at 30) with an SOS of 41. Wyoming is playing in their first bowl since 2011 while BYU has played in 12 straight but this will be the first bowl game for both coaching staffs. BYU has won seven straight in the series by an average margin of 39-14. Wyoming last beat BYU in 2003 by a score of 13-10 with a pick six providing Wyoming’s only TD.

The Wyoming offense seems to be a good one led by one of the top RB's in the nation Brian Hill (MWC had three of the top five in rushing yards nationally). Hill had 1767 yards, averaged 5.5 yds/carry, and scored 21 TD's. Sophomore QB Josh Allen also had a great year passing for 2996 yards, 26 TD's (13 interceptions) and had a pass efficiency rating of 147 (similar numbers to Tanner's last year). He also ran for 485 yards and another 7 TD's. Comparatively Taysom Hill passed for 2323 yards, 12 td's, had a pass efficiency rating of 116.9 and ran for 603 yards and 8 TD's. The Cowboys were 24th in the country with 37.1 ppg and finish 48th in total offense at 439 ypg (231 ypg passing (63rd) and 208 rushing (37th)). BYU averaged 30 ppg (62nd), 406 ypg (70th), 206.4 ypg passing (91st), and 199.9 ypg rushing (45th). The Cowboys turned the ball over 22 times while BYU turned it over just 17. It would seem that Wyoming has a better offense with Tanner Mangum and BYU’s ability to adjust as a key factor.

While Wyoming's offense looked pretty good in 2016, their defense was pretty bad. It seemed that Wyoming had a high risk, high reward defense giving up 34.8 ppg while forcing 25 turnovers (including 29 fumbles recovering 11) and 29 sacks. The Cowboys gave up 261.3 ypg passing (106th) and 202.7 rushing (88th) for a combined 464 ypg (112th). I don't understand how the Cowboy defense could give up 28 pts to Boise State but 69 to UNLV (52 in regulation) and 56 to UNM. BYU's defense gave up 19.4 ppg (15th), 364 ypg total offense (32nd), 255.9 ypg passing (99th), and 108.4 ypg rushing (8th). The Cougars also forced 29 turnovers and 29 sacks.

The Wyoming kicker was 13/20 on FG's with a long of 46. He was 10/12 under 40 yards but 3/8 outside 40 yards. He was also perfect on PAT's. The Cowboys had one punt return for a TD but allowed two kickoff returns for TD's against SDSU and several other long returns.

After researching, I am very impressed with Wyoming's offense and they don't have as many "bad" losses as I thought (only one loss to a team with a losing record - the same as BYU although a loss to UCLA is certainly better than a loss to UNLV). The Cowboys seem to be able to play up to the level of their competition and are a scrappy team with three of their five losses by 3 pts each (including 3OT to UNLV). It’s interesting to note that SDSU and Boise St led the entire game vs Wyoming until the Cowboys scored go ahead pts in the final 2 minutes in Wyoming’s two signature wins. I believe the key to the game will be Tanner Mangum and Jamaal Williams and their ability to move the BYU offense efficiently against the porous Wyoming defense as well as BYU’s ability to pressure Allen and shut down the Wyoming running game. It will be interesting to watch both team’s strengths (Cougar defense vs Wyoming offense) battle as well as both team’s weaknesses (Cougar offense vs Wyoming defense). A quick start from BYU could lead to a blowout win for the Cougars. Offensive struggles and continued poor pass defense may result in another close game and potential upset by the Cowboys. I expect the Cougars to play well against a better than expected Wyoming team.

BYU 38, Wyoming 24