If the question is if we could have a guaranteed win against either LSU or Utah, the answer is LSU for several reasons...

#1 The Math:
According to ESPN's schedule predictor BYU has a 9.6% chance to beat LSU, and then has a 57% chance to beat Utah. Taking the 98+% that we beat Portland for granted, BYU essentially has a 57% chance of being a 3-0 headed into a HUGE with Wisconsin in Provo week 4. If you use the free win card against Utah, you're 6 times less likely to be 3-0.

#2 The Brand Positioning:
Perhaps the one positive takeaway from the debacle that was Big12 expansion was that of publicizing BYU's resume. Anyone who has any interest in sports heard 40 times that BYU won a national championship, that BYU beat Sam Bradford's #2 ranked Oklahoma, that BYU beat Texas twice in 3 years, even that BYU ended Nebraska's home opener streak or beat #1 Miami (and produced a Heisman trophy winner).

While the expansion process was a joke, the constant resume validation was refreshing, all positive mentions were nice, and it's clear BYU's brand/ legacy has been built on program defining wins. Period. LSU in Houston would be added to that list as a program defining wins. Utah in Provo (while it would be a nice win) would not.

#3 The Exposure:
It's no secret that a reason (if not the reason) BYU has an athletic program is to use it as a vehicle for missionary work. A reason (if not the reason) for independence was to gain exposure. The BYU Utah game will get a 20-30 rating in Utah (20 or 30% of homes will watch the game). With roughly 3,000,000 in population, the game should do several hundred thousand in state and will get some viewership from fans and football junkies out of state. The only programs that do better in Utah are the super bowl and General conference. BYU beating Utah is big for exposure in the state. However, the viewership for LSU BYU may double that of the Utah game with an 8:30p CT ESPN start. While BYU may be Utah's biggest game of the year based on viewership, we should hope that BYU wins it's most viewed game which will almost assuredly be LSU.

The question that this post addresses is if BYU gets a guaranteed win would you take it against LSU or Utah. The correct answer is LSU. HOWEVER, if the question's context was, "You have to go 1-1 against LSU and Utah- choose one", and by taking a win vs LSU, BYU is guaranteed a loss vs Utah... That scenario is worthy of debate and I don't feel like there is a wrong answer.

Either way, BYU will be 3-0 to start the year so the point of this argument is moot. But tis the off season after all so argue on... Go Cougars