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Sep 21, 2017
9:15:32am
roseyscenario All-American
BYU resurgence! the case for optimism and an improved season. Part II
In the face of another year of massive roster turnover, and on the heels of one of the more disappointing seasons in over a decade, some might be wondering what we know at this point about the prospects for change and improvement for the upcoming year.

BYU had four major problems in 2016-2017 that resulted in underperformance, one not controllable and three controllable: 1) the Cougars were cursed with another outbreak of debilitating injuries, 2) the team went to war with an outdated strategic plan on offense, 3) surprisingly ineffective team play, and 4) another weak defensive performance.

What persists as the biggest myth about last year? It is that somehow high expectations from the media and fans harmed the fragile psyche of our hypersensitive players. It may make some feel better to underestimate the team this year, but BYU players, like almost everyone who aspires to excellence in any field, have internal expectations much higher than anything coming from external sources. Media expectations didn't hurt BYU last year. Injuries, poor strategy, and eventually discouragement did.

Most everyone familiar with the program expects Dave Rose to improve upon the 22-12 from last year. Many are saying otherwise but don't believe them, they don't really believe it. Credit the coaches for not joining in the sandbagging.

Here are a few things we know will change next season from summer scrimmage stats and coaches' comments:

1. BYU will increase 3 point shooting considerably. Coaches believe analytics demand more 3s when they have the shooters. http://basketballsocietyonline.com/nba-three-point-attempts-wins-data

2. The return of Zac Seljaas, who led the WCC in 3% as a freshman by a mile and finished #3 in the nation, should help improve team 3%.

3. Yoeli Childs, who attempted only two 3s last year, will take many more this season after hitting 35 of 80 over the summer, good for second best % on the team.

4. TJ Haws and Childs have separated themselves as the team's strongest players in summer scrimmages. Only those two and Seljaas hit 3s well (Bryant basically did not play in summer).

5. Elijah Bryant is nearing 100%, certainly in lateral quickness, but is not yet vertically fully explosive. Could be the breakout year we expected last season from this newlywed.

6. Jahshire Hardnett is shining and seems likely to emerge as a major minute rotation player at PG. He's not a prolific 3 point shooter but is fitting in well and knows how to play winning ball based on his impressive summer won/loss record.

7. Aside from Childs, none of the bigs hit 3s, though Andrus, Dastrup, and Nixon launched a fair number. Braiden Shaw led the team in FG%.

8. While still unsettled, Luke Worthington, by far the most physical player on the roster, may be in the lead at center. Coaches like his defense and leadership. Anti-Lukes need to get used to him playing double digit minutes.

9. While the preferred plan is to start a tree at center, i.e Dastrup, Andrus, Worthington, or Shaw, the most effective 5 on the court could be Haws, Childs, Bryant, Emery, Seljaas. Look for lots of small ball this season.

10. The inside/out offensive game is long gone.

11. BYU will continue to play fast regardless of success in transition. It wears opponents down, especially in Provo and it forces opponents to send 4 defenders back which increases BYU's ability to snare more defensive rebounds. BYU led the nation in defensive rebounds last year.

12. Coaches plan a season long drum beat central theme to "value every possession," meaning take care of the ball and take only good shots. BYU will execute some PNR, shoot more high percentage 3s, avoid quick low percentage shots, and make the extra pass.

13. But the #1 concern for this team this season is not which big will step up, or which offensive or defensive scheme will be run, or even key injuries. It is who has the goods to emerge as the team's on court leader/leaders. There is no shortage of brains or basketball knowledge on this roster, but that undefinable "know it when you see it" centerpiece to every well functioning group remains unsettled. Perhaps a new RM can fill that void.

14. RMs, Worthington, Nixon, Andrus and Seljaas all look in surprisingly good condition. Dastrup also looks trim.

15. Weber State transfer McKay Cannon looks good, but pretty sure he must redshirt this season.

This team is looking better than some think for 2018. It would be better with Eric Mika, of course, but with the blessing of good health for recovering Zac Seljaas and Elijah Bryant, the clear demonstrated improvement of TJ and Yoeli, the addition of impressive JC transfer Hardnett, and the size and potential leadership of recent RMs, look for a stronger team than last year.

BYU resurgence Part I was posted on May23:

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=17840395
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Sep 21, 2017 at 9:15:32am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Sep 21, 2017 at 9:18:01am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Sep 21, 2017 at 10:22:05am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Sep 21, 2017 at 1:35:39pm
Message modified by roseyscenario on Sep 21, 2017 at 3:15:40pm
Message modified by roseyscenario on Sep 22, 2017 at 4:46:21pm
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Related Threads Children:
Dastrup is key, as he was last year and didn't get anywhere. None of the bigs (roseyscenario, Sep 23, 2017 at 10:28pm)

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