that's part of the problem statement (The Shazad)

Mar 5, 2012 - 4:27pm

The Shazad

that's part of the problem statement

The classic problem statement assumes that he will never show you the one you picked if you got the right one, otherwise the question "should you switch?" is meaningless, since everyone would know the answer at that point.

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Messages

Author

Date

oldy but a goodie: there are 3 doors.

johnnycarson

Mar 5, 02:53pm

I know why. It's basic math.

brj8

Mar 5, 02:53pm

Yes, switch. Your odds double. (nm)

chago04

Mar 5, 02:53pm

Yup. (nm)

brj8

Mar 5, 02:54pm

Depends on what school of thought you belong to. (nm)

chago04

Mar 5, 02:55pm

That's a fun probability problem

BYU-NorthIdaho

Mar 5, 02:54pm

Original odds are 1/3, but upon being

chago04

Mar 5, 02:56pm

Yes - that's it

BYU-NorthIdaho

Mar 5, 02:58pm

We discussed it a lot in Stat 441 with Tolley.

chago04

Mar 5, 02:59pm

Read about the Monty Hall problem on wikipedia: (short)

benny1982

Mar 5, 02:54pm

Test the probability of the MH problem at this link:

benny1982

Mar 5, 03:03pm

Cool. Learn something new everyday. (nm)

Oregano

Mar 5, 03:11pm

I just did 10 of each. My results:

workindev

Mar 5, 03:18pm

Mine:

BYU-Texas

Mar 5, 03:26pm

You should change your choice. I don't know why but

scottfunkel

Mar 5, 02:54pm

i think its because the girl was hot. (nm)

johnnycarson

Mar 5, 02:54pm

Mythbusters did an episode on this.

Pwride

Mar 5, 03:01pm

<< Deleted >> (nm)

ds7

Mar 5, 03:02pm

you don't add, the kid spent the $2 on cigarrettes in the (short)

johnnycarson

Mar 5, 03:05pm

Do your odds of being right change without switching?

scall

Mar 5, 02:58pm

No - your odds were 1/3 and are still 1/3 (nm)

Cougar-Duck

Mar 5, 02:59pm

Why don't the odds change?

scall

Mar 5, 03:01pm

I may not get it, but I don't believe the 1/3 against 2/3 (short)

'dweller

Mar 5, 03:03pm

there are a lot of smart people who think it's 50/50 (short)

The Shazad

Mar 5, 03:09pm

Think of it this way

Mems

Mar 5, 03:04pm

The same could be said for door number 2

'dweller

Mar 5, 03:10pm

This is what I think as well.

scall

Mar 5, 03:11pm

All that matters is your initial chance to choose right or

Bainge

Mar 5, 03:13pm

I'd agree if you didn't have a 2nd chance to alter the

scall

Mar 5, 03:17pm

Is this metaphysics? Where we create our own reality??

'dweller

Mar 5, 03:21pm

The outcomes aren't weighted evenly

Mems

Mar 5, 03:24pm

Imagine there were 100 doors

The Shazad

Mar 5, 03:28pm

So there is an assumption of a bias in the host

'dweller

Mar 5, 03:46pm

no. the only assumption is that the host knows where the car

johnnycarson

Mar 5, 03:49pm

^^^this^^^^

Mems

Mar 5, 03:54pm

exactly

The Shazad

Mar 5, 03:57pm

But that is the bias, that he will never show you

'dweller

Mar 5, 04:24pm

that's part of the problem statement

The Shazad

Mar 5, 04:27pm

Right, that's the human bias

'dweller

Mar 5, 04:38pm

Just thinking it through... if the host

'dweller

Mar 5, 04:47pm

yes, if his pick is completely random

The Shazad

Mar 5, 04:57pm

Another way to think about it

Mems

Mar 5, 03:18pm

Just bleat out a goat call and wait for a response (short)

Hoosier Cougar

Mar 5, 03:37pm

there are 9 possible combinations

The Shazad

Mar 5, 03:19pm

shazad wins the day. read this ^^^^. i don't remember

johnnycarson

Mar 5, 03:48pm

An explanation that everyone can undertsnad

jdart

Mar 5, 04:39pm

good guesses - not quite (nm)

The Shazad

Mar 5, 04:52pm

think of it this way....

The Shazad

Mar 5, 03:06pm

I understand the theory, I just don't see how it doesn't

scall

Mar 5, 03:07pm

This is the best way to visualize it (nm)

workindev

Mar 5, 03:08pm

here's another old one...

ds7

Mar 5, 03:03pm

Shouldn't you subtract the $2 instead of adding it? (nm)

workindev

Mar 5, 03:06pm

Yep. Gets it to $25 bucks for the room. (short)

BYU-Texas

Mar 5, 03:08pm

I haven't heard this one. Care to answer? (nm)

PharmCoug

Mar 5, 03:09pm

They each paid $9 ($27 total) for a $25 room

workindev

Mar 5, 03:11pm

Yep. The setup to the question is smoke and mirrors designed (short)

benny1982

Mar 5, 03:12pm

Yep, They paid for Room and tip. 25/3 + 2/3 each (nm)

BYU-Texas

Mar 5, 03:13pm

got it now, thanks. (nm)

PharmCoug

Mar 5, 03:16pm

Whoa. I don't get it at all.

CrackerJack

Mar 5, 03:26pm

they trick you by making you think you are adding to 30.

LeFleur

Mar 5, 03:28pm

Oh. I get it now. Thanks! I feel smart now. (short)

CrackerJack

Mar 5, 03:30pm

Right, the price is no longer $30, it is now $25

workindev

Mar 5, 03:32pm

which one has the car ? C or B? (nm)

LeFleur

Mar 5, 03:17pm

also, if we find out its not a, wouldn't it switch to 50/50? (nm)

LeFleur

Mar 5, 03:20pm

There is a 50/50 chance for each of the remaining doors

workindev

Mar 5, 03:28pm

+1000000 that makes perfect sense. Thanks! (nm)

LeFleur

Mar 5, 03:30pm

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