Overall I really like the analysis and appreciate you gathering the data to facilitate this discussion. I have only a few quibbles:
- I'm not a big believer in recruiting rankings. It's easy to believe that the recruiting rankings a decade ago were determined more by the schools offering scholarships that they were by an objective evaluation of a player's strengths and weaknesses. The result is that the recruits who are offered and signed by traditional football powerhouses (USC, Florida, etc.) tend to get a more favorable ranking than those from upstart schools. As upstart schools (TCU, BSU, etc.) start to enjoy more and more success, the recruiting ranking of their players tends to increase.
- BYU did have a significant coaching change during the period in question. The recruiting rankings start in 2002 - Crowton's second year and the beginning of his demise as head coach.
- The 2004 recruiting class, if I remember correctly, was highly rated, but at least four of those recruits had some off-field "issues" that prevented them from playing.
- Believe it or not, BYU does have some recruiting disadvantages when compared to our peers. Not every top athlete, Mormon or not, wants to attend a school in which he can be suspended and/or expelled for drinking alcohol or fornicating. This does not address the above-average recruiting rankings, but it does help to explain the below-average NFL Draft record.
- As some have already mentioned, BYU has a higher-than-average number of athletes that serve missions. No provision for missions is included in your analysis. I don't know whether adjusting for missionary service would make BYU look better or worse.