Houston was discussed as a playoff contender last year by doing two things:

1) Go to a NY6 bowl and win (against FSU)
2) Scheduke 2-3 Strong OOC conference games and win both (OU and Louisville)

Houston did both and this time last year they were very much in the discussion as a playoff team. The wheels came off the wagon after they couldn’t make it through the AAC undefeated.

You can say the above scenario is extremely unlikely for BYU, but I would argue that I am more likely to get hit by an asteroid on the way to work tomorrow than BYU is to go undefeated against an independent schedule, so the discussion is academic to begin with.