Or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the AAC

First, let's revisit recent history. The summer of 2010 was a crossroads for BYU in the college football landscape. Our hated rival had received a coveted invitation to a power conference, as had TCU (at that point, the Big East). From a competitive standpoint, even with the invitation of Boise State, the MWC was no longer a viable option. Compounding matters, the revenue and television situation in the MWC had always been second-rate, and we're all aware of the broken promises and misrepresentations that had been made to BYU leadership over the previous years. The desire for greater revenue was certainly there, but moving forward it was clear that greater exposure was an even bigger consideration. Consequently, while BYU held out hope for a power conference invite in the still-shifting landscape, an agreement was signed with ESPN that would increase revenue and provide more opportunities to play on big-time TV networks, in addition to signing a six-game deal with Notre Dame. Meanwhile, our other sports were shipped off to the WCC, which was a nice fit in terms of culture but from the get-go felt in many ways like taking a step back (more on that later). Despite my concerns about the WCC, I was initially very optimistic about the opportunities that independence and our new relationship with ESPN would provide.

Due to the departure of four teams from the Big 12 during that round of realignment, it was clear that some additions were going to be necessary IF that conference were to stay afloat. When TCU and, a few weeks later, West Virginia were extended invitations, after many BYU fans thought that we should be choice #1, the message was clear - the P5 conference which would have provided the best geographical and cultural fit for BYU was saying thanks, but no thanks. This was a huge blow.

The ensuing seasons of independence have been a mixed bag. On the football field, BYU's schedule was largely a step up from the MWC days, and the TV exposure was a huge blessing for those who had to suffer without "the mtn." for so many years. However, these front-loaded schedules left little room for error, and year after year it felt as though there was nothing left to play for after the first month of the season. Utah's PAC-12 affiliation had given them a big edge in local recruiting battles. The Notre Dame contract was a huge bust. In our other sports, the WCC has been great for things like baseball and women's soccer, but it became clear very quickly that in basketball (most BYU fans' second if not primary sports interest), the league was little more than a great Gonzaga team, a solid St. Mary's team, and the Little Sisters of the Poor. Within a few years, BYU's most visible spokesmen, Tom Holmoe and Bronco Mendenhall, both stated publicly, on many occasions, that football independence was not sustainable in the long term.

That brings us to today. To me, a couple of things have become clear. First, as much as we would like to play a P5 schedule, we do not currently have the talent to play with the best of the P5 conferences on a consistent basis. Now, you may argue, that could change IF we were to gain entrance to a P5 conference. But that's the second thing that has become clear to me - due to geographical and demographical issues, but more importantly because of sociopolitical and Sunday play issues, BYU will very likely not be offered membership to a P5 conference. I wish it were not so, but this is our reality. The events of 2011 presented our best chance for us to join a P5 conference, and if the Big 12 chose to pass on us then (and again in 2016), it's hard for me to envision what would make them change their minds in the future. The messages that emerged from the leadership and student bodies of several Big 12 members regarding, for example, our policies on LGBT students were particularly telling. (For what it's worth, I don't believe a conference like the AAC would have the same objections to what makes BYU unique.) The final thing that has become clear over the past several weeks and months is that many former BYU players and coaches emphasize the value of playing in a conference, for the ability to have something to continue playing for beyond the first few weeks of the season, and for the ability to develop consistent rivalries that retain fan interest.

One more thing I will say on our current situation - we need to understand our place in the college football world, and we need to play at the level of competition that is appropriate for our situation. In our best years, we are as good as the middle tier of the P5 conferences. It simply does not make sense for us to play P5 competition, week in and week out (check our 2020 schedule, for example), without having the benefit of P5 membership to improve our resources and recruiting.

So where do we go from here? For several reasons, I have to come to believe the joining the AAC (given a couple of conditions being met) is the best path forward for BYU football, for a few reasons. Those conditions are: (1) bringing along Boise and some combination of San Diego State, Colorado State and/or Air Force to join the conference with us, in order to pull the conference's center of gravity westward (this would alleviate an increase in travel costs for our non-revenue sports); and (2) the AAC reworking its agreement with ESPN to provide at least a similar level of revenue that we earn now, and to ensure that all of our conference games are available at minimum on WatchESPN or a similar widely available streaming service (something that has become more important since we entered into our contract with ESPN in 2010). I believe both of these conditions are realistic.

What would playing in the AAC give us? First, it would give us membership in what is widely recognized as the best of the non-P5 conferences, and an opportunity to play for conference championships (see above regarding comments from former players and coaches). Going back to the MWC was never going to be an option (due to bridges burned and the optics of seemingly throwing in the towel and admitting that the independence experiment was a failure), and again, I do not have any hope, in the college football world in which we live today, that P5 membership is in our near-term future. Second, it would give us a clear path to a New Year's Day bowl game, and I believe that playing in one or two of those games would likely lead to an improvement in recruiting. Third, in a special year and under just the right conditions, a playoff berth might still be a possibility. Look at Houston last year - a very strong 2015 season and a non-conference win over Oklahoma set the stage such that, if they had been able to hold serve in conference play, they would have had a very strong argument for playoff inclusion. Even if a team in that situation got embarrassed in the first round of the playoffs, simply getting there would be a huge boon to its recruiting outlook and would strengthen its argument for P5 membership in the next large-scale round of realignment, if that actually occurs. Fourth, given the geographic breadth of the AAC, it would give BYU the ability to play in venues across the country, including improved bowl access, while also allowing for local rivalries in places with higher LDS populations (given the condition of other Western schools being added). Finally, membership in a football conference would give us the kind of allies and partners that we simply don't have as an independent.

I understand the "P5 or bust" argument, and until recently I had been in that camp since BYU went independent. But I invite you to consider what appears to be our most likely future. We will continue to be hamstrung in recruiting due to the lack of P5 conference affiliation and the Honor Code. We will continue to be limited in our coaching options due to the Honor Code and BYU's and the church's unwillingness to pay market value for football coaches. We will continue to fall behind P5 conference members in resources and revenue. Despite these limitations, we will continue to play schedules that are heavy on P5 teams without those limitations, in schedules that are front-loaded and don't provide opportunities for warm-up games to start the season. Fan interest will dwindle as more and more people start to ask the question, "What are we actually playing for?" Meanwhile, our men's basketball team will continue to play conference schedules in which opportunities for signature wins are almost entirely absent.

Set aside your pride. Realize where we truly reside in the college football landscape, and think objectively about what path forward truly represents the best opportunity to improve our standing within that landscape.

I want BYU football to have the best chance to succeed. That's why I want BYU to join the AAC.