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Feb 18, 2018
5:22:22pm
TheKing 3rd String
NBA draft is such a crapshoot

I think all Jazz fans are in agreement that tanking makes sense in very specific contexts (star player suffering serious injury, playoff elimination, etc.). However, here is some interesting information that really questions whether the multi-year tanking strategy made famous by "The Process" is actually worthy of pursuing. Below are the top-five cumulative win shares produced by each of the last 12 drafts along with the draft position of the player (draft picks)...(win shares)...(last names):

  • 2016 - (36, 9, 7, 1, 3)...(7.0, 5.4, 5.3, 5.0, 4.7)...(Brogdon, Poeltl, Murray, Simmons, Brown)
  • 2015 - (1, 11, 4, 27, 6)...(31.1, 14.3, 12.5, 9.5, 9.1)...(Towns, Turner, Porzingis, Nance, Cauley-Stein)
  • 2014 - (41, 25, 19, 45, 23)...(23.0, 17.6, 12.7, 12.7, 12.5)...(Jokic, Capela, Harris, Powell, Hood)
  • 2013 - (15, 27, 12, 22, 3)...(36.5, 34.2, 27.2, 23.8, 23.3)...(Antetokounmpo, Gobert, Adams, Plumlee, Porter)
  • 2012 - (1, 6, 9, 35, 3)...(57.9, 53.6, 43.7, 37.6, 27.5)...(Davis, Lillard, Drummond, Green, Beal)
  • 2011 - (30, 15, 1, 60, 11)...(58.0, 56.3, 48.2, 45.2, 40.9)...(Butler, Leonard, Irving, Thomas, Thompson)
  • 2010 - (10, 7, 9, 1, 5)...(51.6, 46.9, 43.1, 43.0, 41.6)...(George, Monroe, Hayward, Wall, Cousins)
  • 2009 - (3, 7, 1, 9, 19)...(102.5, 91.9, 66.3, 51.8, 44.0)...(Harden, Curry, Griffin, DeRozan, Teague)
  • 2008 - (4, 5, 35, 24, 26)...(87.5, 75.8, 73.4, 56.4)...(Westbrook, Love, Jordan, Ibaka, Hill)
  • 2007 - (2, 3, 48, 4, 9)...(127.8, 76.9, 72.7, 63.5, 59.6)...(Durant, Horford, Gasol, Conley, Noah)
  • 2006 - (2, 47, 24, 21, 11)...(94.3, 80.5, 76.6, 55.5, 50.6)...(Aldridge, Millsap, Lowry, Rondo, Redick)
  • 2005 - (4, 3, 30, 57, 2)...(162.0, 77.3, 76.0, 58.8, 57.7)...(Paul, Williams, Lee, Gortat, Williams)

A couple of observations:

  • There has not been a single pick in the top three that has led the team that drafted him to an NBA Championship. Kyrie Irving was the closest, but I think all would agree that only happened because of Lebron.
  • While there certainly is a correlation between draft order and production, there are still plenty of talented players throughout the draft.
  • Under Dennis Lindsey, Utah has drafted a top five player in four of the last eight drafts; that is pretty impressive.
  • 14 teams missed badly on Kawhi Leonard (including the Jazz).  But the other guy that Jazz fans complain about missing (Booker) has actually performed worse than his draft positon (14 vs. 13).  The guy taken ahead of him by the Jazz (Trey Lyles) has outperfomed him.  It's not just about chucking the rock 30 times a game...that doesn't necessarily contribute to winning even though it looks impressive to the casual fan.
  • I do think it very important to keep picks, and I'm glad the Jazz did not trade theirs during the trade deadline.  I'm inclined to focus on winning and hope that Lindsey hits a top-five player again over the next few years, even if it is a pick outside of the lottery.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Feb 18, 2018 at 5:22:22pm
Message modified by TheKing on Feb 18, 2018 at 5:24:04pm
Message modified by TheKing on Feb 18, 2018 at 6:25:43pm
TheKing
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TheKing
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