It's one thing to be able to promise big games and then win them, but we haven't been doing much of that lately. If a coach goes into a 4-star recruit's living room and makes that pitch, he better be able to at least offer a solid chance of winning those games. The overall record since going independent against P5s is 13-22, so at least we have those 13 wins, but it'd be a lot more impressive if it was closer to or above .500.
However, since going independent, most of the times that we have gotten on a really big stage against a top 25 team, we've lost. All but three times, actually. The two wins over Texas, which were awesome, and the third was against Boise State, so meh.
It's all but a foregone conclusion that when we go up against a top 25 team these days, we're not going to come out on top. At least if we were a top team in the AAC or MWC, we'd have the chance to be like Houston, Memphis, etc, and only need to win the conference to go to an NY6 bowl instead of having to have a perfect season with multiple wins against quality P5 opponents for it to happen.