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Sep 16, 2018
9:48
:55
am
NorCal_Coug
All-American
Wait till week 5 or 6 when last year’s results no longer factor in
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NorCal_Coug
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NorCal_Coug
Joined
Mar 17, 2005
Last login
Apr 24, 2024
Total posts
4,855 (266 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Sagarin's new rating system with last year always weighting so heavily is dumb
RdF3
9/16/18 9:47am
Wait till week 5 or 6 when last year’s results no longer factor in
NorCal_Coug
9/16/18 9:48am
Answered my question
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 9:49am
He's keeping last year's results as 15% of the rating all year long.
RdF3
9/16/18 9:51am
Wow. Idiotic
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 9:52am
Especially since last year BYU underperformed to talent substantially
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 9:52am
It's not idiotic. It makes the model more accurate overall. There will always
molodyets
9/16/18 10:00am
I’ll disagree with you on that slightly
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 10:25am
You make large assumptions that he didn't consider and test that as well.
molodyets
9/16/18 10:41am
I guess - his process is evolving - he’s said so in interviews this fall
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 10:45am
It's never perfect. These things are shooting for 75% ish straight up and 53%+
molodyets
9/16/18 10:51am
Sure. no disagreement. I think we can agree on that statement fully
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 10:59am
When does last year drop off completey
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 9:49am
2019
BYUinTX
9/16/18 9:59am
<< Deleted >>
Mr. Scoobs
9/16/18 9:49am
As long as it is consistent what is the problem?
TNT
9/16/18 9:50am
I think it's dumb that even in December, 15% of a team's rating will be based
RdF3
9/16/18 9:52am
What do you propose?
TNT
9/16/18 9:53am
Not using it?
cougarmanguy
9/16/18 9:54am
Dropping off last year's results after week 4 last he used to.
RdF3
9/16/18 9:54am
It does. They back test these things. How do you expect it to perform
molodyets
9/16/18 9:59am
And what's he using a base accuracy off of? The AP top 25? His opinion of how
RdF3
9/16/18 10:10am
On field results of what it predicted vs the outcome.
molodyets
9/16/18 10:12am
It would make sense to do a 5 year average of final ratings.
specsauce
9/16/18 10:08am
<< Deleted >>
Abe Froman
9/16/18 10:19am
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