Possible outcomes:
1. win 10 games
2. win the bowl game
3. finish ranked
2/3 is a good year
3/3 is a great year
2 years with only 1/3 is disappointing, 5+ years with only 1/3 should prompt evaluation
2 years with 0/3 is bad and should prompt evaluation.
I think this is reasonably doable for a school like BYU, with our restrictions but also past success, without having exorbitant expectations like a national championship or a NY6 every other year.