I know it's pre-season, the time when everyone's confidence and excitement are at the peak. Some are even speculating about what wonderful bowl game BYU could go to if they win 10 or 11 games. I think BYU will be improved this year. I think the program, overall, is on a positive, upward trajectory. But winning even 9 games would be a miraculous season in my opinion. Consider:

BYU has a very difficult schedule. They are underdogs in each of their first 4 games. They play 3 top-tier P12 teams in Provo and a tough SEC team on the road. We're hoping BYU finds a way to win at least one and hopefully two of those games. But reality is that it's possible that even an improved BYU could lose all of those.

Next, BYU plays Toledo and USF, both on the road. Just the travel to Ohio and Florida is tough, each two time zones ahead of Provo.

Toledo was 7-6 last season. But in their 7 wins they averaged 55 points a game. That's a lot, no matter who you're playing. Even in their 6 losses they averaged 23.5 points. On the road they will be a tough team to slow down. And that victory over Western Michigan in the bowl game that got all BYU fans super excited about 2019? BYU beat them 49-18. Toledo also played Western Michigan last year and beat them 51-24.

USF was a also 7-6 last year. They averaged 34.6 points in their victories and 20.2 in their losses.

These are both decent teams that won't be easy to beat on their home turf. They are certainly not pushovers or teams that anyone should automatically put in the BYU win column.

Next is BSU in Provo and USU at home. It's been awhile since BYU has beaten either of these teams, even though many BYU fans routinely consider them lesser teams when compared to BYU. Neither of these games will be easy.

I'd like to think BYU has a good chance at a victory in each of the 2nd 4 games on it's schedule. But I believe it's unrealistic to expect the Cougars to go 4-0 during this stretch, especially with 3 of the games on the road. Unfortunately 2-2 might be more likely. And it's not inconceivable that BYU could lose them all.

Next are the 3 gimmes: Liberty and Idaho St in Provo, and UMass on the road. At least they should be gimmes. Let's hope they are.

And finally, BYU travels to play a good San Diego St team on the road.

So if BYU goes 1-3 in their first 4 games that they're underdogs in, split the next 4, and win the 3 gimmes, they'd be 6-5 going into the the finale in San Diego. I'm hoping for better, but it could be worse. I just hope that BYU doesn't go into San Diego needing a win to become bowl eligible.

So, in my humble opinion, 6-6 or even 5-7 would be a negative, but not totally unrealistic outcome. I'm hoping for 7 wins or more. Best case scenario would be to somehow split the first 4 games, take 3 of the next 4, beat all the gimmes, and beat SDSU. That would give BYU a regular-season record of 9-3. Frankly, that's realistically the best BYU can hope for. Anything better than 9 games would be a positive shock. So I'm expecting at least at least 6 wins with a very good shot at winning 7. 8 would be an excellent showing with their schedule. 9+ is dream land.

So all of the above is a very long-winded way of saying why I'm just taking one game at a time, enjoying the competition, and hoping for the best.