I've probably thought way too much about this and spent way too much time watching games and reading articles. Here is what I see happening one week from today:

Utah will be better than last year. We joke about the silly playoff scenario for them and we should. But they will be very good this year. But they are far from perfect.

I watched the offense only plays for most of Vanderbilt's games last year to see how Ludwig ran his offense. In short, quick safe throws, power runs, rpos, lots of pre snap motion. They had very few interceptions (4-1 touchdown to int) and very few fumbles. The offense is built to use power and safe decisions and throws. They averaged 32 ppg last year. Vanderbilt also had good personnel. Vaughn averaged almost 8 yards a carry.

I would expect nothing too different here. Ludwig has been around a long time and run the ball often in most of his offenses - substantially more last year. I suspect that Utah will abuse Moss until he gets broken up (in the very Whittingham way of handling his players). Huntley will be called on to make quick decisions based on simple reads that avoid sacks. He will also have to run the ball quite a bit though.

In an offense that minimizes sacks BYU will need to mitigate the success of the run up the middle, which just so happens to be their strength. It remains to be seen how confident Utah is in their offensive line. My guess is they will be good, not great and will make mistakes early. I suspect that Utah feels they have to use Dixon occasionally as a deep threat to keep BYU honest and he has legit speed - though did next to nothing against BYU last year.

It looks like kicking for Utah will go to the UCLA transfer, who will be solid, but statements I have heard from within utah's camp are that they won't have the same presence there this year, nor the same confidence.

On defense, Utah will try really hard to match up Blackmon on Bushman as much as possible, thinking that is their best choice. But rewatching the game last year Bushman was never really defended by a linebacker. It was almost always a safety, and often they tried to blanket him with two players. Whittingham openly stated that they are working on a game plan to defend Wilson's scramble ability - if that means a spy then good for BYU and the tight ends.

Rewatching the entire game from last year Empey more than held his own against Fotu. The offensive line won't have to win every battle against utah's defensive line, just enough of them. I suspect there will be back and forth - tackle for loss on one play and good protection on the next. BYU will continue to attack the center of the field against Utah. Fun fact - Utah has only one linebacker who has ever taken snaps at the FBS level as a linebacker - bernard. I suspect Lloyd will be good for them but the Utah coaches' confidence in basically anyone behind them is low.

Keys to the game for BYU to win

DEFENSE:

1. They must limit the damage on runs up the middle. If Utah is averaging less than 4 yards per carry, BYU wins.
2. Utah's offense will involve a lot of quick throws that limit sacks, so BYU will need to create game changers with fumbles.
3. Don't give up any deep balls

OFFENSE:

1. Utah's main focus will be to limit Bushman and Grimes will need to outscheme them to find a way for Bushman to be involved and productive
2. Run the ball. BYU needs to have a yards per carry of at least 3.5 to win.
3. And, always, no game changing turnovers

I see BYU winning the game 21-20. Nail biter.

Go Cougs