I decided to run a quick simple regression analysis based upon each team's scores relative to the offensive, defensive, and overall ratings from several different metrics - specifically FPI, FEI, and SP+. The result of that analysis has South Florida scoring anywhere from 18 to 24 points with BYU scoring anywhere from 22 to 30 points. Margin of victory ranges from USF winning by 2 to BYU winning by 14.

In addition to that I also took a strictly score-based approach looking at each team's points scored for/against relative to what their opponents' average are. Based on that score-based method it has BYU winning by a score of 28-24.

When factoring all of that together I'm predicting a score of 27-21 in favor of BYU. Game will be closer than most on here would expect/like but is actually fairly close to that actual Vegas spread. Best case scenario I see would be a 31-17 type of win and worst case would be a 21-24 type of loss.