They been unable to score and keep the lead with both QBs in the games.
So sure putting in a new QB isn’t gonna be any sort of advantage but what happened previous to that matters both games. They couldn’t score in the second half, especially in the red zone, anyway. It isn’t like that changed.
The part you’re overlooking is that Toledo and USF are BAD teams. They both suck. It isn’t like they’re playing Alabama or even Utah state. Those are both bad teams and they’d blown the games previous to those injuries.