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Nov 17, 2019
12:00:41pm
jreid191 All-American
Top 25 according to Strength of Record, Game Control, FPI, etc. (week 12)
I took the average ranks from the various ESPN Resume and FPI components and average them together to come up w/ a composite ranking of sorts. Components include Strength of Record, Adjusted W/L, Game Control, Average Win Probability, FPI, and Projected W/L. I ended up giving extra weight this week to Strength of Record and Adjusted W/L as to better match what actual rankings are likely to resemble (since actual wins and losses are more important to most than simply how you looked getting there). Here's the top 25 based on the average of those rankings:

1. Ohio St (10-0)
2. LSU (10-0)
3. Clemson (11-0)
4. Georgia (9-1)
5. Alabama (9-1)
6. Penn St (9-1)
7. Oregon (9-1)
8. Oklahoma (9-1)
9. Utah (9-1)
10. Florida (9-2)
11. Baylor (9-1)
12. Wisconsin (8-2)
13. Michigan (8-2)
14. Minnesota (9-1)
15. Notre Dame (8-2)
16. Auburn (7-3)
17. Iowa (7-3)
18. Cincinnati (9-1)
19. Appalachian St (9-1)
20. Memphis (9-1)
21. SMU (9-1)
22. Oklahoma St (7-3)
23. Texas A&M (7-3)
24. Boise St (9-1)
25. Navy (7-2)

Based upon those rankings, the NY6 Bowl Game projections would be as follows:

Fiesta Bowl: 1 Ohio St vs 4 Georgia
Peach Bowl: 2 LSU vs 3 Clemson

Rose Bowl: 6 Penn St vs 7 Oregon
Sugar Bowl: 5 Alabama vs 8 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: 10 Florida vs 32 Pittsburgh
Cotton Bowl: 9 Utah vs 18 Cincinnati

Biggest mover at the top this week was Georgia who jumped into the top 4 thanks to their road win over Auburn yesterday. Minnesota dropped and was replaced by Florida in the Orange Bowl. AAC champ is still likely to end up in the Cotton Bowl, but Appalachian St and Boise St still both have a shot if AAC teams slip up. Pitt currently gets the Orange Bowl bid as the 2nd highest ranked ACC team. There's 6 ACC teams ranked in the 32-40 range (Pitt, Virginia, Va Tech, Wake Forest, Miami, and Louisville).

BYU comes in at #41 currently. In looking at their schedule, their opponents are ranked as follows:

9. Utah (L)
24. Boise St (W)
26. Washington (L)
27. USC (W)
42. @Tennessee (W)
44. @San Diego St
56. @Utah St (W)
84. Liberty (W)
85. @Toledo (L)
98. @USF (L)
129. @UMass
FCS. Idaho St (W)

UMass is pretty much a guaranteed win which puts us at 7 wins. I still view San Diego St at basically a toss-up game. We've beaten teams that are better than them, but all were close games. We've lost to teams that are worse than them in Toledo and USF. With how both teams are trending I still probably give BYU a slight edge, but it could still go either way. That puts us at either 7-5 or 8-4 entering the bowl game. I feel like our 3 most likely opponents in that game (along w/ projected records) are 9-3 Navy, 8-4 Temple, or 7-5 Tulane. I don't like our chances against Navy. I do like our chances against Tulane. Temple would probably be the most competitive matchup of the 3 options. I'm guessing it'll end up being Navy due to the large Naval base in the area that would draw up some additional local interest. Many have speculated that Hawaii will be the opponent, but according to a fellow CBer who has a son on their team, it sounds like Hawaii is likely headed for a bowl game on the mainland this year.
jreid191
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jreid191
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