I'd list the teams in 3 tiers. First tier is those who are for sure in with a win on Saturday:

Ohio St: with a win - 100%, with a loss - 37%
Clemson: with a win - 100%, with a loss - 24%
LSU: with a win - 100%, with a loss - 17%
Georgia: with a win - 100%, with a loss - 4%

Some might be surprised w/ LSU being less likely to get a bid w/ a loss than either Ohio St or Clemson. I suspect the main reason for this is because an LSU loss means that Georgia wins and is a guaranteed team that will pass them up. If you look at LSU losing in combination with either tOSU or Clemson then LSU would be more likely to get in than those others, but tOSU and Clemson are both heavy favorites to win which leads towards the current odds.

The 2nd tier is those who will more likely than not be in with a win on Saturday, but will also be eliminated with a loss:

Oklahoma: with a win - 87%, with a loss - 0%
Baylor: with a win - 52%, with a loss - 0%
Utah: with a win - 50%, with a loss - 0%

Oklahoma is likely in w/ a win. Utah's probably the strongest challenge to that and could still get the nod, but odds are in Oklahoma's favor at this point. Utah's odds are at 50% with a win. They would need one of Oklahoma, Clemson or tOSU to lose at which point they'd likely get the bid. As mentioned above, there's a small chance they could still get the bid even if that doesn't happen. Baylor's odds are 52% with a win. They would likely need either Clemson or Utah to lose as well to get in.

The 3rd tier is those who will not likely get in even if they do win, but they do still have some nonzero chance at getting in so we will include them:

Wisconsin: with a win - 35%, with a loss - 0%
Oregon: with a win - 3%, with a loss - 0%

Wisconsin's only chance would be if either Clemson loses OR if both Utah and Oklahoma lose. If either of those happen then they might have a chance to sneak in (keep in mind that a Wisconsin win also means a tOSU loss). Odds are not in their favor, but there is still a chance. Oregon's odds are extremely unlikely. It would likely require Clemson to lose along with Ohio St, LSU, and Oklahoma all winning and then hope that the committee rewards the for being conference champs over a 1-loss Clemson and 2-loss Georgia. They probably are still out in that situation, but it's enough of a chance that they are still included here.