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Jan 27, 2020
10:27:48am
Mrs Featerbottom All-American
My prediction: not stupid (it's a safe move) but not all that genius.
The last recession was a once in a century event and the reason assets were so cheap after the bubble burst is that people/institutions needed cash and needed to sell assets in a fire sale to get that cash (e.g. there was an oversupply of inventory) and on the other side there were relatively few with cash to buy assets for sale (i.e., demand for the assets was low). With supply very high and demand very low, prices of course crashed.

This time, banks, institutional investors, private equity firms (and to a lesser extent individuals) etc. have a TON of dry powder that they are having a hard time deploying because asset prices are high, interest rates are low, and they want to be liquid in the event of a correction. So you won't have the oversupply problem (i.e., there won't be mass liquidations to raise funds) and you won't have the demand problem (i.e., lots of players will have cash to buy assets being liquidated).

That isn't to say a recession won't happen or that asset prices won't go down, but it will be much, much harder to buy discounted assets.
Mrs Featerbottom
Previous username
VenetianCougar
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Bill Moore Esq
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Mrs Featerbottom
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Oct 25, 2009
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Sep 27, 2021
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1/27/20 10:06am
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