2-3 more 3-pt FGs puts us at our average. That's 6-9 points (depending on how you round it)

Since it's looking more and more like we may get Baxter by then, lets just imagine what the game could have looked like a few weeks ago. With Baxter, the rebounding numbers change:

BYU pts. per rebound: 3.28 - (69/21)
GU pts. per rebound: 2.49 - (92/37)

BYU's offensive efficiency was actually really good. If they get 3 more rebounds, they effectively earn 11.5 more points and take 8.72 points away from GU.

GU's final score: 92
(+) LESS rebound adj: 8.72
GU adj. TOTAL: 83.28

BYU's final score: 69
ADD 3 ptr adj.: 6
(+) ADD rebound adj: 11.5
BYU adj. TOTAL: 86.5

Yes, I know. This doesn't account for many other variables i.e. score inflation after the game was out of reach, effect on game flow of these adjustments etc. But it gives you a sense for how easily things can change the general feel or outcome of a game.

I believe we can beat GU going away. "Can" being the operative word.