I think the team has the talent to get to the sweet 16 with the right draw.

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Feb 20, 2020
9:50:32am

Dakota Cougar All-American

I think the likelihood of getting the "right draw" is much better facing a #5 and a #4 than a #9 and a #1.

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Dakota Cougar

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Bio page: Dakota Cougar
Joined: Oct 30, 2005
Last login: Aug 5, 2021
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Messages

Author

Time

Why beating Santa Clara and Pepperdine is the most important thing, not Gonzaga

IceWaterExtraIce

2/20/20 9:42am

You'd rather be a 12 seed than an 8 seed?

byubyu

2/20/20 9:44am

12's have a good track record against 5's, and you don't have to play a #1 in

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:45am

You're worried about making the sweet 16.

byubyu

2/20/20 9:48am

I think the team has the talent to get to the sweet 16 with the right draw.

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:50am

Have they beaten any team that is projected to be a 5 seed or higher?

byubyu

2/20/20 9:53am

The closest team that we've played to a 5 seed is probably Houston, we beat them

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:59am

Fair, but a first round or second round exit isn't special regardless. So as far

YaHerdWithPerd

2/20/20 11:39am

it's special for us

BlueK

2/20/20 12:19pm

Yep. 53% of teams will go home without making it to the Round of 32.

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 9:53am

I'm thinking more like 91% of teams won't make it to the round of 32.

BYUCPA

2/20/20 10:01am

Yep. I definitely would. A 5 seed would be very nervous to play us. Not much

Coach's Dad

2/20/20 9:45am

Seeds 10-12 are historically about twice as likely as 8-9 to make the Sweet 16

The Shazad

2/20/20 9:48am

Well obviously, they have to play a one seed next

IceWaterExtraIce

2/20/20 9:49am

And historically BYU can't make it past the first day.

byubyu

2/20/20 9:50am

well clearly you'd want to avoid a play-in game

The Shazad

2/20/20 9:53am

But much less likely to make the Round of 32. You want an 8-9. Only 47% of the

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 9:53am

it all depends what your goal is as a team

The Shazad

2/20/20 9:55am

This is a nice, sensible comment.

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:59am

Teams that haven't advanced to the Round of 32 in 9 years had better be focused

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 10:25am

of course they should focus on winning

The Shazad

2/20/20 10:30am

Right. And that's an 8-9.

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 10:38am

ok, whatever

The Shazad

2/20/20 10:52am

I would. The difference in opponent in rd 1 is negligible.

flyzag

2/20/20 9:53am

The difference is negligible between Kentucky and St Mary's?

byubyu

2/20/20 9:58am

Yes, Kentucky kenpom rank =28, SMC=34

flyzag

2/20/20 10:01am

But, if you read my post, I never mentioned kentucky.

flyzag

2/20/20 10:03am

Wonder why.....

byubyu

2/20/20 10:04am

just keep in mind, a 12 seed with an at-large bid = play-in game

BlueK

2/20/20 9:45am

That's a good consideration.

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:47am

The ideal thing would be to have convincing wins against Santa Clara and Pepp

Ode to Hoy

2/20/20 9:47am

Agreed except for the rather lose to both thing

fattycoug

2/20/20 9:49am

you should add quadrants to your analysis. Pepperdine is probably a q2 game

BlueK

2/20/20 9:50am

Just did, thanks for the tip

IceWaterExtraIce

2/20/20 9:54am

Pepperdine will be Q2 if we lose, Q3 if we win.

rggee

2/20/20 9:57am

still possible it could be a q2 win for us

BlueK

2/20/20 11:05am

LMU and USD were down in the 240s range. I doubt Pepperdine will move up by

rggee

2/20/20 12:34pm

I agree wholeheartedly. Gonzaga is not a must win and not a probable win

idacoug

2/20/20 9:52am

The important thing is to go 2 of 3. Which games won’t make that big of a

cougarfann888

2/20/20 10:00am

It must be exhausting to worry so much about things beyond your control

StantonMac

2/20/20 10:08am

Wow that was good analysis, I agree with that totally

spicycoug

2/20/20 10:13am

Well said. Tonight's game might be the most important game BYU has left.

inside_info?

2/20/20 10:22am

Don't know about the seeding, but absolutely agree those are the important games

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