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Feb 24, 2020
11:19:20am
ldssdl All-American
What each player showed against Gonzaga and projecting their roles for March.
TJ Haws: Set the tone early drawing not 1, but 2 charges. Picked off one pass, and forced several other turnovers that teammates recovered. We're used to seeing TJ excel on the offensive end, but that was the best defense I can ever remember TJ playing. Not to mention TJ scored BYU's first 4 points, assisted on the next bucket... and pushed the lead from a 2 to a 3 possession game in the final minutes to all but ice the game.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, TJ is the engine that makes BYU's offense go. He is by far BYU's best ball handler and passer, allowing him to dribble penetrate and break down defenses. He can score at all 3 levels of the court. He can create his own shot probably better than anyone else on the team save for Yoeli in the post, and creates the best opportunities for others. He has 2 game winning shots and 1 game winning assist this season. In particular, TJ's ability to hit the midrange jumper off the dribble may prove critical in March when tournament-quality defenses focus on taking away shots at the rim and at the 3 point line. Either way, TJ's a veteran, senior guard who has seen just about everything a defense can throw at him, and has the skills to find an answer for anything, so long as his execution and decision-making stay sharp.

Yoeli Childs: He is all but unguardable in the post one-on-one. He earned not one but two fouls on Tillie in a single possession of the second half, essentially taking out Gonzaga's best player with foul trouble. His touch around the rim was off the past few games and even early on against Gonzaga when he started off 1-4 I believe. But he found his touch as the game progressed. He has developed nicely as a passer, so doubling Yoeli is much more dangerous for opposing defenses this year than in prior years, as demonstrated when Yoeli got doubled late and he found Barcello for his only 3 of the night, which made the lead a 2 possession game as the game headed down the stretch. Yoeli can create his own shot in the low post, a fading skill in today's game. His 28 and 10 performance against #2 Gonzaga was the best performance any college player has had against a top 2 team since DWade in 2003. If Yoeli can make 60% of his FTs, there really isn't much of an answer for him. 3 pointers are typically just a bonus from him, but he's usually good for at least 1 or 2 three pointers a game, allowing him to stretch the floor.

Jake Toolson: BYU's best pure shooter. Helped push BYU's lead in the second half from 8 to 14 with several Jimmer-range 3's, which really set the tone early in the second half and forced Gonzaga to play catch up the whole time. His passing has really come along in recent weeks. He can post up smaller guards if teams switch defensively with him. Toolson still isn't a great ball handler, and thus doesn't quite create his own shot the way TJ or guards/wings traditionally can, but when Toolson is connecting from deep or on step-backs, he is unstoppable in a different way from the other two of BYU's Big 3. BYU's struggles against SD and SC had as much to do with Toolson having off games offensively as Nixon being out if you ask me. Hopefully all this downtime these next few weeks will allow his ankle to heal up, because when Toolson's jumper is on, not even elite offenses like Gonzaga can keep up. I think Jake's value in March was best summed up by the quote: "Jake is being selfish when he doesn't shoot."

Seljaas: BYU's 4th senior was the game-changing X-factor against Gonzaga. His sophomore and junior years weren't what we hoped for, and even though his 3 point shooting has still been streaky this year, opposing defenses still need to respect it. Seljaas hit a 3 with 6-something left in the first half in transition which actually gave BYU the lead for the good in the game. His butt-steal in the second half leading to Toolson's transition 3 is an all-time iconic play, and that whole sequence should go down in the annals of BYU basketball history. Seljaas has stepped up his defense, rebounding, and hustle with Nixon out, and has been a good, switchy wing defender all season. Seljaas is an underrated FT shooter in late game situations at over 80% from the charity stripe, and those 2 FTs he hit in the single bonus after the refs' mishap letting Toolson shoot were clutch. He even scored a bucket in the post and had another assist in the post. Plus his unique mustache and mullet is gaining a cult following on social media, adding an extra level of fun to this team. If BYU realizes its dreams come March, Seljaas will likely be the X-factor 4th scoring punch in at least one of these games.

Barcello: Talk about a recruiting steal for Pope. A non-LDS transfer coming from Arizona, a big time program in the West and no stranger to big boy basketball. A completely selfless player who plays within himself and the back-up PG to spell Haws, an excellent spot-up shooter from 3. He can hit the midrange jumper at a decent clip. He typically guards the opposing team's best ball-handler. He was quiet against Gonzaga, but hit the cold-blooded 3 late in the game that seemed to break Gonzaga's will. He's an experienced upperclassman in his own right. His scoring is another potential X-factor for the role of the 4th scoring punch that makes BYU all but unbeatable come March.

Harding: A steady role-player who is perfect for the classic 3 and D player all great teams need. A good 3 point shooter who is athletic enough to attack the rim as well when defenses are scrambling with their rotations. No agenda player and his size allows BYU to switch on defense. His scoring doesn't seem to have the same spark as Seljaas or even Barcello, which may honestly just be a testament to how steady he is, but he is a capable, complementary scorer that defenses must respect.

Nixon: The glue guy, the hustle player. Anyone who plays basketball knows all great teams need a player like that to form a team where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Whether it's solid post defense, boxing out and tracking down rebounds, setting hard screens to free up all of BYU's shooters, Nixon makes all the plays outside of the boxscore. He is a credible 3 point shooter and can throw it down when open, and although his touch off the glass is suspect at times, he makes BYU's defense very switchy without hurting BYU's offensive spacing. He is the key to allowing BYU's Big 3 to consistently play at their best. Heal up soon Nixon!

Lee: To me, he is the biggest surprise of the season by far. His limited athleticism and post moves honestly had me believing that he was destined for a Luke Worthington career path. His touch around the rim this year is incredible really, and it really does seem like a bad idea to leave him wide open from 3 (5-10 from 3 this season). He drilled that one 3 against Gonzaga without hesitation, and it's those kinds of shots that really contributed to the vibe that BYU was destined for the upset win. He only had 5 rebounds, but a lot of those were in traffic, a testament to his soft, quick hands. He won't be the right match up for every team, particularly ones with more athletic bigs, but against Gonzaga's Euro, more traditional centers, Lee was essential. He is BYU's most stout post defender, and has played a key supporting role for this year's team. What a shining example of his work ethic and the coaching of Pope and Burgess.

Baxter: Baxter had looked completely lost on both ends of the court going into the Gonzaga game. And while he still has a ton of work to do to merit even 10-15 minutes, he made several key plays. 1 offensive board and converting the put back was huge, if only for his confidence, plus another bucket. Wish he would have connected on the one lob attempt, but the pass was a little flat. Next time baby, He only played 8 minute against Gonzaga, but they were by far his best minutes of the season despite the increased quality of opponent. His hands aren't great (probably exacerbated by his still healing shoulder), so he doesn't secure rebounds very well or even more difficult passes, but he can tip rebounds to teammates. And he has NBA length and vertical jumping ability, something BYU never has enough of. If BYU's guards can find some lob chemistry with Baxter, it would add a verticality to BYU's offense, filling one of the few holes in the offense. That would be a luxury however. One of BYU's most glaring weaknesses is their rim protection, as I believe Kenpom cited on BYUSN last week based on their 2 point FG%, so that is where Baxter could make the most impact. If he can learn to defend the rim without fouling in limited minutes, that would really round out BYU's team. Fortunately BYU has a few weeks for him to continue healing his shoulder and developing offensive and defensive chemistry with the rest of the team.

The offense for the most part is right where you want it to be, aside from the aforementioned potential of the lob threat to Baxter and him scrapping for more offensive rebounds. The other hole in the offense is BYU doesn't get to the free throw line enough, but Pope has said he prefers open 3s to contested layups, so some of that may be intentional. My favorite nugget from the Gonzaga game is that Pope watched BYU's last 2 losses to Gonzaga on Saturday morning, and the analytics showed Gonzaga's defense slowed down BYU's offense into iso plays on 80% of their possessions, which is a horribly inefficient play. And what did we see Saturday night? BYU constantly move the ball around unselfishly and attack with smart aggression, even late in the game when things were tight. That is supreme coaching right there.

Moving forward, BYU needs to capture that passion for defense that they showed against Gonzaga in every game, starting with taking care of business in Pepperdine, then in the WCC tournament. Based on BYU's history in the tournament and current statistics, I think winning one game in March is a reasonable expectation. Would be only the 11th time in BYU history that BYU has advanced to the round of 32. Anything after that would be gravy based on precedent. But with good health, anything is possible, right? And who knows if Pope's unspeakable dreams might be realized? After all, it is why they call it March Madness.
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Originally posted on Feb 24, 2020 at 11:19:20am
Message modified by ldssdl on Feb 24, 2020 at 11:30:11am
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