shut downs just started and won't factor into the deaths over the next two weeks. IF everything is as bad as it's been made out to be we should see overwhelmed hospitals and deaths in the 500-1k range in the next 5-12 days. If we are nowhere near that, then I think there has been a lot of misguided decisions based on comparisons to Italy etc....
I'm hoping for the best. Maybe I'm wrong and this thing is going to explode, but the shutdowns over the last 2 days aren't going to factor into the death rate over the next 2 weeks.
The curve in the infection rate isn't really accurate. The infection rate has been high for sometime, we just haven't been testing. The main thing to watch is hospital capacity and deaths