They peaked on Feb 17th and are now down to about 15 new deaths a day, a number that is decreasing daily. Their trajectory appears to be heading to around 5,000 total deaths by my eyes. With a total population of 1.3 billion, that amounts to 0.0035% of the population, or 1 in every 30,000 people.

I believe I am missing something because I honestly believe it will be much worse than this, but I am not fully understanding the data because of this. Maybe we don’t trust the data since it’s from China, but it seems it would be hard to hide tens of thousands of deaths.

Is this really only going to kill 5,000-10,000 in China? (obviously a tragedy and a lot of people, but from a public health standpoint doesn’t seem as bad as what I was expecting)