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Mar 18, 2020
1:12:12pm
tevye 3rd String
If the projections in this article are close to correct all age groups in the US
are going to take a hit. I hope the article is very wrong. Using the data from the table on page 5 I did a little math (based on 60% of the population of each age group in the US getting the disease):

Age Hospital ('000s) ICU (000's) Deaths (000's)
0-9 24 1.2 0.4
10-19 76 3.8 1.5
20-29 328 16.4 8.0
30-39 838 41.9 21.0
40-49 1,190 75.0 36.4
50-59 2,621 319.8 154.0
60-69 3,718 1,018.8 493.0
70-79 3,305 1,427.7 694.0
80+ 2,075 1,472.0 707.0

Total 14,175 4,375.7 2,115,300

For a US Population of 327.2 Million (I used 2018 numbers) this means: 4.33% of the country in hospital, 1.33% of the country in ICU and 0.64% of the country passed on.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
tevye
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tevye
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