Since there is going to be no NCAA tournament this year, I decided to do a simulation of the NCAA tournament based upon my final projected bracket for the season (
http://rfsbracketscience.blogspot.com/p/current-projected-bracket.html). Rather than simply do a quick W/L simulation I decided I wanted to go a little more in-depth with it. I adjusted the depth charts for the teams based on minutes played in recent games and used some online software to project the outcomes along with play-by-play. Here I will include the results of the games along w/ a brief recap. This will be broken up into different segments and will likely be posted over the course of several days (as there is no way I'm going to do this all in 1 sitting). If you want to know previous results just click through the linked threads.
Round of 32 games in Greensboro, NC:
3 Maryland 82
11 Stanford 72
Stanford takes an early 10-4 lead and leads much of the first half. Maryland goes on an 11-2 run late in the first half to take a 31-28 lead and leads 39-33 at the half. Maryland lead the entire 2nd half. Stanford cuts the lead to 3 on a Daejon Davis 3 pointer with just under 5 minutes left, but Jalen Smith and Aaron Wiggins come up big for Maryland down the stretch to lead them to the 10 point win. Player of the game is Jalen Smith with 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Aaron Wiggins adds 25 points off the bench.
2 Duke 84
7 Colorado 82
The game is close early, but a 14-2 run by Duke gives them a 30-18 lead with 8:28 left in the half. That is followed by a 10-2 run a couple minutes later to give Duke a commanding 18 point lead. They are up 49-32 at the half. Duke maintains their double-digit lead most the 2nd half and is still up 75-61 with 8 minutes left. Over the next 7+ minutes Colorado holds Duke to 0 field goals and just 5 FTs going on a 21-5 run to take a 2 point lead with just 1:35 on the clock. Wendell Moore makes a couple FTs for Duke to tie. After a couple misses and a TO Duke has the chance to win the game. Tre Jones misses long on a pull-up jumper from 15 feet, but Javin DeLaurier grabs the offensive rebound and is able to make a contested pull-up jumper the FT line as time expires to win the game for Duke. Player of the game is Cassius Stanley with 27 points, 6 rebounds, 5 blocks, and 2 assists.
Round of 32 games in Cleveland, OH:
3 Michigan St 87
11 Utah St 96
There are 8 lead changes in the first 5 minutes of the game as both teams come out ready to play. Over the next 9 minutes Michigan St slowly pushes the lead and goes up 43-23 with 6:24 left in the half and iss still up 52-42 at halftime. Early in the 2nd half USU uses an 11-0 run led by Sam Merrill and Diogo Brito to cut the lead to 1. Michigan St scores the next 8 to extend it back to 9. An 11-2 run by Utah St ties the game back up, and a couple big threes from Sam Merrill gives Utah St the 74-72 lead with 7:04 left. Utah St stays hot and pushes the lead to 8 after a Brito 3 pointer with just 1:06 remaining. Utah St makes 7-8 FTs in the final minute to seal the victory taking them to their first Sweet 16 in 50 years. It was a very balanced scoring effort led by Sam Merrill's 23 points, but player of the game is Diogo Brito with 18 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, and 4 steals. Cassius Winston had 30 points for Michigan St in the loss.
1 Dayton 78
9 Florida 71
Both teams struggle scoring early in this game as it remains close and is tied at just 13 with 7 minutees left in the half. Dayton finally starts making some shots going on a 10-2 run to take a 25-15 lead and maintains that lead until halftime where it's 33-23. Florida is able to cut the lead to 4 with just under 11 minutes left in the game, but Dayton scores on their next 5 possessions to go up 60-45, and an 11-1 run a minute later gives them a commanding 71-49 lead with 4:47 to go. However, Dayton wouldn't score another FG the rest the game. Florida goes on a furious run to cut the lead to 7 with just 27 seconds remaining, but Dayton makes enough FTs down the stretch to hang on for the win. Player of the game is Jalen Crutcher with 18 points, 7 assists, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals.
Next post will be the final post for Round of 32 with games in Omaha (1 Kansas vs 8 Marquette, 4 Louisville vs 5 Auburn) and Sacramento (13 New Mexico St vs 5 West Virginia and 15 UC Irvine vs 10 Texas Tech).