Mar 21, 2020
4:27:40pm
4:27:40pm
my basic statistical analysis says Covid peaks around April 1st 289,249 cases
in the United States.
This assume that we continue to have ~33% growth rate - which has been the average since March 10th. However, yesterday our growth rate was only 14%. Is that the the new trend? If so we beat every other country in the world on this - which I don't believe. We'll see if it was an anomaly.
This also assumes that we have the same 21 day spike rate as China did. I'm assuming we will. Even though we have our knowledge on this out ahead of China. We aren't taking the same precautions as China did so I assume the growth rate will be about the same.
I hope I'm way off on this.
This assume that we continue to have ~33% growth rate - which has been the average since March 10th. However, yesterday our growth rate was only 14%. Is that the the new trend? If so we beat every other country in the world on this - which I don't believe. We'll see if it was an anomaly.
This also assumes that we have the same 21 day spike rate as China did. I'm assuming we will. Even though we have our knowledge on this out ahead of China. We aren't taking the same precautions as China did so I assume the growth rate will be about the same.
I hope I'm way off on this.
Originally posted on Mar 21, 2020 at 4:27:40pm
Message modified by newbie on Mar 21, 2020 at 4:29:38pm
Message modified by newbie on Mar 21, 2020 at 4:31:26pm
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