The numbers were just too big last time and I should have recognized that right away. I made the error of projecting a 33% growth rate from day to day. Where the actual data indicates a 33% growth rate at the start of the spike added upon each other. In other words we should see around 2,500 to 3,000 new cases a day (with some days more and some less).

Also, looking at the data more closely I am moving my start of the spike range to March 14th instead of March 9th.

So my new projection is April 4th as the spike ~65,000 cases if we are like China or if we are like Italy April 13th and ~90,000 cases.

That's more like it.