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Mar 25, 2020
2:48:55pm
proudcugr 3rd String
Math looks right.
You could also look at that and say that 4 out of 100 deaths for the year will be from Covid - roughly even with a strong flu year.

If you expand this out to a 3 year time frame, the same time that many expect the economic impacts to resonate, then this becomes FAR less impactful than the flu, as the flu will likely keep killing at a relatively high rate.

Not trying to say it is or it isn't. Numbers are interesting. I can pull numbers that create substantial alarm or numbers that make this sound irrelevant. Much of that depends on my time frame of analysis. Do I care most about "today" or "this month", or "This year."

I just always like to see balanced analysis.

For people over 80, this thing is deadly and scary, especially in the "today" time frame. But so is any respiratory disease. Many elderly I know already won't take young visitors during flu season peak because of the risk.
proudcugr
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proudcugr
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3/25/20 2:12pm

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