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Mar 25, 2020
3:38:19pm
proudcugr 3rd String
"we're not Italy" is the key phrase
We talk as though we may see the same numbers as Italy as use them as a cautionary tale, but we are very different in most ways that matter.

We are much further spread out than Italy is. Our population density is less than 1/2 of Italy. (This is important in a pandemic).
We are MUCH younger than Italy. Average age is 7 years younger. I don't think people understand how big of a difference that is. (99% of Italy deaths are over 85 or have at least 1 "serious" co-morbidity. 60% have 3 or more co-morbidities (i.e. very sick people).
We smoke much less. Italy has a 25% smoking population. US is less than 13%.

Our hospitals per capita is very similar.

Yet even with all of that, IF we end up as bad as Italy, and you double Italy, numerically we are inline with a bad flu year like 2016. (Over a shorter period).

One challenge that some physicians are talking about is that great healthcare can actually hurt numbers here. Iran is relatively low - at least compared to Italy. One suspicion is that Iran doesn't do a good job of keeping their elderly and weak population alive so a virus like this doesn't have that same population to rip through. The weak and vulnerable died to other causes last year... The US and most European countries on the other hand do an amazing job at extending life beyond "normal" environment limits so an uncontrollable new disease like this becomes an equalizer and those countries that have cared for their elderly exceptionally well look like they have horrible numbers as they have created a vulnerable population. This may lead to a puzzling trend that shows less-developed countries having substantially lower death rates than Western Europe and the US. This also leads to some theorizing that while we have a short term "Spike" in deaths, we actually have fewer deaths in the 18 subsequent months since most of those dieing to Covid would have died in the next 24 months due to other causes.

It's hard to discuss human lives in numbers, but as a numbers guy some of this discussion is intriguing. It's also frustrating to see how misused so many numbers are during this time.
proudcugr
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proudcugr
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3/25/20 2:12pm

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